A LAB majority now a 38.5% chance on Betfair – up 3% in a week Hung parliament at 39.1% still favourite pic.twitter.com/l0bwq66tJr
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2013
There’s been a move back to a LAB majority on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The price had moved in by about 3% in the past two days. A hung parliament remains the favourite.
The chart above is from the Betfair exchange and covers a period of about 3 years. Unfortunately there is no labelling on the X axis.
Clearly, based on current polls, the market is moving as you would expect but there is still a long way to go. The Tories believe that EdM is perceived by voters to be weak and is an electoral liability.
Maybe. Maybe not.
I still cannot see a Tory pathway to a majority but they could end up as the largest party. A lot of blue hopes are resting on the first time incumbency bonus that MPs seeking their first re-election have been shown to benefit from.