How LAB moved from a 1% deficit to a 41% lead Given the very public row that’s been going on over Mr Michael Gove I’ve dug out some comparative data on the voting intentions of teachers and the big changes in the way this key segment of the electorate will vote. In MARCH 2010 YouGov found teachers splitting CON 33: LAB 32: LD 27: UKIP 3. In the latest polling of the same segment published last month it is CON…
Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not become the New Kids On The Block and delurk. I know, You Got It (The Right Stuff) to make excellent contributions to PB. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Ukip supporters really dislike posh Dave… but they can’t stand Ed…
PB 2014 competition predictions now out (Firstly, apologies for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end, so thanks for your patience.) 80 pundits took part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looking at everything from UK leaders at Christmas, the Scottish independence referendum and the Euro-elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM. Full details of the player-by-player predictions are available here. UK leaders:…
It could be earlier if there’s a post EURO2014 nervous breakdown The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring. One thing that we know about the Conservative party is that it is pretty unsentimental when it comes to failing/failed leaders. If Dave doesn’t manage to bring home the goods on May 7th 2015 then it’s hard to see him lasting…
Latest Electoral Calculus projection for GE2015 http://t.co/4VTCVNQT7t pic.twitter.com/EY46vABkQD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 This is the commentary by Martin Baxters who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades: “Most pollsters measured a small decrease in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in January. But they also showed an increase in both the smaller parties’ vote, at the expense of themajor parties. However the pollsters are relatively divided about UKIP. One group (Opinium, ComRes and Survation) see a high…
Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef
Today's ICM/S Telegraph Wisdom Index sees LAB extend lead from 1.1% in Sept 2013 to 2.3% in poll in which respondents estimate GE shares — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 Latest ICM Wisdom Index in which respondees are asked to predict party shares for GE2015 has CON 31.1 LAB 33.4 LD 15.8 UKIP 11.7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 By 49% to 30% ICM finds backing for LAB plan to increase tax on high earners — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1,…