If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

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How the parties are campaigning from the @LordAshcroft Wythenshawe poll pic.twitter.com/oFC8TtPY3W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 Getting data is absolutely essential Once again Lord Ashcroft has done what the mainstream media seems to have all but abandoned – commissioned an expensive phone poll on an upcoming political event and come up with data that adds to our understanding of the current political scene. No one is particularly surprised by the voting numbers in his Wythenshawe poll – LAB…

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Local By-Election Preview : February 6th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : February 6th 2014

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Counting the votes pic.twitter.com/jyd5QR07yQ — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent Defence) Result of last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11) Result of ward at last election (2012): Non Party Independent 340 (43%), Plaid Cymru 219 (28%), Independent 167 (21%), Independent 40 (5%), Independent 18 (2%) * Total Independent vote: 565 (72%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Evans (Independent),…

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Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surging

Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surging

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Ipsos-MORI February 2014 pic.twitter.com/ubIv7VrwO7 — PolPics (@PolPics) February 6, 2014 Ipsos-MORI chart showing sharp rise in economic optimism pic.twitter.com/yoYYPtNYEf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014 Table showing latest Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings for the 4 leaders pic.twitter.com/BMf8Hrr9NL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

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From the latest Ashcroft mega-poll We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples. Lord Ashcroft gets round this by using very large samples with the result that for poll watchers like me his detailed data can provide good insights and pointers. Clearly the top two, UKIP and LAB, have seen the most new support coming to them and are probably…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation As we enter the Twilight Zone of Wednesday, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker looking to Delurk, Get Ready For This thread, it give you a chance to delurk, hopefully there’ll be No Limits to the number of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A…

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Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

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It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning. It provoked quite a discussion on Twitter and I thought that PBers might like to cast their eyes over it and give their verdicts. To my mind the element that Iain has not factored in is the organisational state of the local LD…

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An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

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The trend over the past few years New analysis from @IpsosMORI shows CON voters now less certain to vote than LAB ones. http://t.co/WbBIclp73V Chart pic.twitter.com/wcbQPw6nTi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 How higher certainty levels boosted LAB in this poll Ipsos-MORI Jan 2014 Political Monitor pic.twitter.com/PYmcnHH54B — PolPics (@PolPics) February 5, 2014 There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones. This…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, it’s the Vogue, thing to delurk and Express Yourself, once you get, Into The Groove of posting, you’ll enjoy it. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Lynton Crosby gives Tories ‘lovely’ roasting as MPs demand govt EU referendum…

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