The LAB share remains rock solid in PB’s YouGov Weekly Average
The CON vote is the one with most variance
YouGov finds Conservative voters very much divided on Michael Gove
By comparison the same YouGov sample found current CON voters splitting 93% to 6% when the same question was asked about Mr. Cameron. Mike Smithson Ranked in top 35 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB
A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them
The gap needs to close and move sharply the other way Tory hopes will probably be boosted a bit by today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times which sees the party on 35% just 4 points behind Labour with both the LDs and UKIP on 10%. Maybe they can even start to think of a cross-over – something on which there is an active betting market. If that happens it will certainly be a key psychological moment and will give the…
The CON minister in charge of immigration resigns for employing someone who didn’t have permission to work in the UK as his cleaner
Immigration Minister Mark Harper resigns after it emerged his cleaner did not have permission to work in the UK. pic.twitter.com/CD3uOfzKRe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2014 Another boost for UKIP? Further details from the Spectator blog here.
Swing voters haven’t stopped swinging – they’re just doing it differently
The classic Con/Lab voter has gone the way of the Con/Lab system Once upon a time, most people voted at general elections and nearly everyone that did voted Conservative or Labour. And thus the key swing vote was born: those persuadable voters in marginal constituencies. Win them and you win the election. Then it became far more complicated. The rise of the Liberals, the Scots and Welsh Nationalists and more recently a plethora of other parties – combined with a…
By-election second places are no longer good enough for UKIP. A win in 2014 would be a great launchpad for the general election
Local By-Election Results : February 6th 2014
Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent defence) Result: Independent (Lloyd) 347 (46%), Plaid Cymru 197 (26% -2%), Independent (Evans) 127 (17%), Conservative 83 (11%) Independent WIN with a majority of 150 (20%) (The total Independent vote was 474 (63%) down 9% on 2012, therefore there was a swing of 3.5% from Ind to Plaid) Arbourthorne on Sheffield (Lab Defence, last elected in 2012) Result: Lab 1,398 (52% -15% on 2012), UKIP 482 (18% +2% on 2012), Con 213…
Populus change their much criticised party ID weightings which should see much bigger UKIP shares
New Populus poll with new methodology that gives big boost to UKIP Lab 36 Cons 33 LD 9 UKIP 15; — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls say their new methodology will boost UKIP and see declines for LAB & LDs. Tories should stay the same. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls has been sharply criticised about its former party ID weighting model. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 The new weightings – see how they shift…