Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

Comments 0 Comment

Time to send George/Dave on lots of trips north? At GE2010 Labour won 41 of the 59 Scottish seats while the Tories came away with one. So if Scotland gets stripped out of the equation then achieving an overall majority because a much easier task for the blues. As a rough and ready way of calculating the impact on the current commons seat projection simply deduct 20 from the LAB majority figure. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the…

Read More Read More

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

Comments 0 Comment

What’s the point of independence if you have to give up your sovereignty? Two years ago, two-thirds of Scottish voters would have voted for independence if it made them £500 a year better off.  That support dropped to just 21% if they would be left £500 a year down.  We shouldn’t regard those figures as gospel – putting the emphasis so heavily on one factor in the question will probably exaggerate the effect in the results – but there’s no…

Read More Read More

The Six Nations thread

The Six Nations thread

Comments 0 Comment

Wales v England from last year, when Wales defeated England, an epochal defeat that most England fans are either still in denial about or haven’t recovered from. Tomorrow sees the beginning of the 2014 Six Nations Championship, and I look at the betting opportunities available. When betting on the tournament, The fixture schedule needs close attention, given that England’s first match is France away, which means England’s Grand Slam/title aspirations maybe over by 7 pm on the first Saturday. I think…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Results : January 30th 2014

Local By-Election Results : January 30th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 548 votes (59% +6% on 2012) Conservative 350 votes (37% +12% on 2012) Liberal Democrat 41 (4% unchanged on 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 198 (22%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 3% Chadsmead on Lichfield (Con Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 206 votes  (36%), Labour 157 votes (27%) United Kingdom Independence Party 108 votes (19%) Conservative 102 votes (18%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 49 (9%) Buckie…

Read More Read More

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Comments 0 Comment

http://t.co/be72pAqDpA pic.twitter.com/tHqRYZhs3t — PolPics (@PolPics) January 31, 2014 My 4/1 bet that LAB wins most seats but CON gets most votes Yesterday I placed a bet at 4/1 with PaddyPower that LAB will win most seats at GE2015 but will trail the Tories on national vote share. What makes this a value bet is because the vote share window when this could happen is much larger than the commons seat calculators suggest. Look at the uniform national projection above from…

Read More Read More

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 30, 2014 That was almost the polling week that was We’ve now got to Friday in what has been a dramatic polling week and the chart above shows what’s happened to the five times a week YouGov “daily polls”. After three surveys which really looked as though Labour’s lead had narrowed we’ve now got Miliband’s party in…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Result of last election for council (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2012): Lab 838 (53%), Con 391 (25%), BNP 284 (18%), Lib Dem 69 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Grainger (Con), Sheila Oakes (Lab), Kate Smith (Lib Dem) Chadsmead on Lichfield (Con Defence) Result of last election for council (2011): Con 46, Lab 10 (Conservative overall majority of 36) Result of ward…

Read More Read More