politicalbetting.com

The most interesting thing to emerge from Super Tuesday, even more so than Trump losing Vermont and Biden losing American Samoa, are the stats in the Tweets above. For a long time on both sides of the Atlantic we have seen headline voting intention figures which have proven inaccurate at an election but the supplementaries indicated why the headline voting intentions were wrong and I wonder if we’re about to see that phenomena occur again in November. Just look at…

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This evening the BBC will be showing “Sarah Everard: the search for justice“. It will make grim viewing. There is something troubling about the wish to see a programme about the brutal end of a woman’s life, a woman who will remind many of us of their own daughter, sister, friend, colleague. That it was made with the consent of Sarah Everard’s family is perhaps one reason why it should be watched – to understand why what happened happened, to…

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Jeremy Hunt is expected to cut national insurance by 2% in his budget tomorrow but I wonder if that is enough to swing things round for the Tories without extra support for the public services. This budget doesn’t seem to indicate a May election, as the cut will only really be seen in one payslip before a May election. But soaking the hard working higher rate taxpayers seems to be popular. The politics of envy sadly appears to be popular….

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One day back in Parliament and George Galloway is throwing a lot excrement at the Labour fan. First there is the offer to Jeremy Corbyn to defect which may appeal to the enabler of a Tory majority but deep I think he is a Labour man at heart and despite his suspension it will be against his natural instinct to stand again Labour at the general election. I cannot see any betting markets on Corbyn to win a seat at…

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One of the reasons the PB editorial team love Ipsos polling is that it goes back nearly half a century so we have a lot precedents to compare their polling, which can be occasionally bouncy due to their turnout filter, but their leader satisfaction ratings also help give context. What should alarm Sunak and the Tories are their recording breaking lows, he is polling worse than Truss and Johnson at the time of their nadirs whilst the Tories hit their…

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TSE

Looking at these figures both Starmer and Sunak are seen as handling events in the Holy Land very badly. I suspect this is an artefact of seeing what looks like and feels like collective punishment being delivered on the Palestinians and driving sympathy towards the Palestinians. Starmer should go on a crusade to reassure the voters that he is on their side on this issue but point out we no longer live in the Sykes-Picot era and what a UK…

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This polling is why I don’t expect Galloway and his party to make much of an impact at the general election coupled with the lack of media coverage during the election campaign. TSE