In 2014 one of the main reasons I thought and back No to win was the fact the Yes side couldn’t come up with a plausible answer for the currency an independent Scotland would use as well as ancillary questions like who would be the lender of last resort. Eleven years on it appears the independence side haven’t come up with a plan and would rather not the issue be discussed. As The Times notes why this is important. Before…
Tomorrow sees the election for Mayor of New York and it would be quite the fairytale of New York if Andrew Cuomo wins given the current polling, the fact he lost in the primary to Zohran Mamdani and more pertinently the reasons he had to resign in disgrace as Governor of New York in 2021. I have thought for a while there might be some value in backing Cuomo given the left wing campaign Mamdani has been fighting on. Perhaps…
Today is the first anniversary of Kemi Badenoch becoming Tory leader when she defeated the human colostomy bag that is Robert Jenrick and it doesn’t make good reading for her. The most striking number is that 12% of voters think she looks like a Prime Minister in waiting, which is lower than the Tory voting intention figure which means the Tory vote is soft. The only positive thing I can say about Kemi Badenoch is that she’s not Robert Jenrick,…
Halloween. And another government F*** You to women. They come fast these days but this is the best yet: not just 2 fingers to women but a positively Trumpian approach to compliance with the law, namely, use every excuse and deceitful dodge to ignore a law you don’t like. Or are too cowardly to enforce. The facts Too harsh a judgment? No. The very clear messages the government is sending out are: Perhaps those endlessly bewailing how Trump is degrading…
Given that 40% of current Reform MPs are former Tory MPs and by my count 100% of current Reform MPs have been Tories in the past and every week seem hear about former Tory MPs defecting to Reform then I am not sure this strategy will be effective. As we can see in the image opponents of Reform are highlighting the number of former Tories who have defected to Reform. TSE
When it comes to foreign elections I have a golden rule which is don’t bet unless you speak the local language, so that limits me to betting on elections in France, Germany, Belgium, and English speaking nations like Canada, Australia, and America with a certain generosity of spirit, which is why I avoided betting on the election in the Netherlands. Congratulations to anybody who backed the D66 at 200/1 and 100/1, it is also a salutary lesson about why sometimes…
The polling is utterly grim for Queen Elizabeth ii’s favourite child. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday
Is assuming the 2028 White House race be a free and fair election the sign of being a fucking idiot? A few weeks ago I met up with somebody whose views on political analysis and betting I utterly respect and whose predictions have a very high rate of being accurate. As our discussion turned to events over the pond I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a…