politicalbetting.com

My money’s on October 24th One of the big political stories and betting markets in the new year will be the date of the UK General Election. What adds to the analysis is that Sunak (or his sussessor] will become the first Conservative Prime Minister since the repeal of the fixed term permanent act to be the one who alone decides on what the date should be. This is a very personal decision and if he gets it wrong it…

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You can read The New York Times article here. TSE

Today marks the last day in office de facto of Amanda Spielman, who has been the longest serving  Chief Inspector of Schools since Ofsted’s foundation in 1992. She is to be replaced by Sir Martin Oliver, who has a formidable in tray to cope with. Let us consider the problems that face him:  On Spielman’s own admission Ofsted is currently completely discredited. It is difficult to argue with this assessment given that Ofsted has just been declared guilty of lying…

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When it comes to political betting the 2007 general election that never was when I turned from an occasional political gambler to a serious political gambler in this field. Mike Smithson had consistently been pointing out for years Gordon Brown’s ratings might be an issue up against David Cameron and the Brown bounce I put down to a relief that Tony Blair had been replaced so I was betting heavily against an early election and selling Labour on the spreads…

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TSE

Reviewing 2023 I thought I’d go for one of the moments that genuinely left me speechless and it was the revelation that Boris Johnson wanted to be injected with Covid-19 live on TV, this was part of some other revelations Boris Johnson “wanted to be injected with Covid-19 on television” to calm public fears, an ex-aide has said. The claim – by Lord Lister – came in a witness statement to the Covid inquiry. He said Mr Johnson “suggested to…

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Following on from the Northern Irish peace process one of my expectations was MPs would be safer but a different type of malevolence has replaced Irish republicanism, from Jo Cox to Sir David Amess you can understand why MPs are taking precautions like Mike Freer. If this is the reality of being an MP then expect a lot of good people to decline the opportunity to become a member of parliament. TSE

Just look at those expectations amongst independents. Unsuprisingly the odious Trump has embraced this polling. TSE