Do early polls and betting mean that much? The build up to the 2012 White House race is starting to get more attention with lots of polling and betting interest. The question is whether we can read too much into the situation from early polling and betting. The chart shows the Betfair prices on the four favourites ate exactly this stage in 2007. Notice how the eventual winner John McCain had started to edge out – by July 2007 you…
Could my 200/1 shot possibly make it? Having tipped and backed Barack Obama for the 2008 White House race when he was 50/1 in May 2005 I was determined to try to repeat the success for 2012. So in November 2008 less than a fortnight after Obama’s victory I placed £50 with Ladbrokes at 200/1 against Jon Huntsman being the next president. When he accepted the post of ambassador to China from President Obama two and a half years ago…
Will Obama say any of these? Ladbrokes price The Queen 1/4 Special Relationship 1/3 Northern Ireland 1/2 Democracy 1/2 Pakistan 4/6 Middle East evens Al Qaida 5/4 Olympics 6/4 Taliban 7/4 Royal Wedding 2/1 Gadaffi 2/1 Nine-Eleven 2/1 G20 2/1 Bin Laden 3/1 Shared Values 3/1 Royal Family 3/1 Historic Ties 4/1 Trusted Ally 4/1 War Of Independance 8/1 War on Terror 8/1 Healthcare 10/1 Gordon Brown 10/1 Winston Churchill 12/1 Barbecue 14/1 B.P 16/1 Yes We Can 16/1 Guinness…
The first hard news from Canada’s election will come in about four hours time. Double Carpet is ready with a new thread. In the meantime, as we reflect on this momentous day the above collection of clips from Politicos gives a real sense of how Osama death is seen in the US. Mike Smithson
ABC News Nine years, seven months and twenty one days after the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the the Pentagon the US networks are reporting that Osama Bin Laden has been killed at a compound in Pakistan in a joint CIA/Special forces operation. According to ABC News quoting a national security source: “… a compound in Pakistan where the terror mastermind was believed to be had been monitored for months. When the decision was made to move on…
PB Nov 14 2008 Is he the one to take on Palin – then Obama? In the week after Obama’s victory in November 2008 I placed a £50 bet at 200/1 with Ladbrokes against the then governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, winning the 2012 White House race. It seemed a long shot but during those difficult days for the Republicans after their defeat it appeared to me that there was one potential contender who had what it would take to…
A Sunday slot on next years’s White House race Whilst in the UK we’ve been focussed on the OE&S by-election, we have overlooked the dramatic events in America. Since the midterms, Obama has made a quiet comeback. He looked presidential this week and has recorded his first net approval ratings in months. In the meantime the GOP, who should have been celebrating control of the house, is on the back foot. What is really going on and what are the…
Do the actual leaks live up to their billing? If you’ve ever wondered what a newspaper on steroids would look like then check out the Guardian this morning. The paper is claiming a big exclusive with its revelations from Wikileaks of US diplomatic messages and a large part of the paper is devoted to the coverage. As well as the analysis there’s article after article stating why they are publishing the information as well as, on their website, an interactive…