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Category: Scotland

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…

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Will Salmond back down in the Supreme Court row?

Will Salmond back down in the Supreme Court row?

Could his stance have wider implications? Just seven weeks after his triumphal victory in the Holyrood elections SNP leader Alex Salmond is at the centre of a row entirely of his own making which could cost him dear. He’s refusing to back down after making comments in a magazine which are said to undermine the independence of the judiciary. He also singled out a prominent Scottish lawyer. Last night’s main news programme on STV gives a real flavour of the…

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Could Labour’s polling position just evaporate?

Could Labour’s polling position just evaporate?

Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons? I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again. This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave…

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The Holyrood polling race – the result

The Holyrood polling race – the result

Before we finally move on from the pollsters’ performances in their final surveys ahead of last Thursday’s election we still have to cover Scotland. The chart for the Holyrood constituency section is above. Alas ICM, the top pollster from the Scottish Elections in 2007 and the firm that got the AV referendum correct to within a remarkable 0.1%, did not carry out a Holyrood survey after March 15th and is not included. It should be noted that the Ipsos-MORI survey,…

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Can Captain Scotland now deliver?

Can Captain Scotland now deliver?

  How does Salmond use the powers at his disposal? There is a new political superhero in the country, standing victorious astride his domain, saltire-emblazoned cape billowing in the wind. Not even Labour at their most dominant, with their historic base in the country, popular Westminster administration and record in delivering devolution could win an outright majority. Considering that only two months ago Labour had double-digit leads in the polls, there’ll be more than a few looking at the Holyrood…

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Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

What are the lessons from Irish History? With Alec Salmond’s stunning victory in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, and the disarray among the Unionist parties, is independence now inevitable, or can the Union be saved? There are two main take-aways from the Irish Home Rule saga, both which have huge relevance today. 1) When the Home Rule movement began in the 1870s only a minority of Irish Radicals wanted independence. Most voters cared more about the injustices of Anglo-Irish rule: economic…

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TNS-BMRB has the SNP moving into a commanding lead

TNS-BMRB has the SNP moving into a commanding lead

A new poll for STV by TNS-BMRB is just out with the SNP making more progress. The changes on the chart are with the last poll from the firm at the end of March. The full numbers taking into account both sections are:- Constituencies SNP 45 (+8) Lab 27 (-11) Con 15 (nc) LD 10 (+3) List SNP 38 (+3) Lab 25 (-10) Con 16 (+2) LD 9 (+1) Green 8 The fieldwork finished yesterday. These are dramatic changes and…

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YouGov has the NO2AV lead down by eight points

YouGov has the NO2AV lead down by eight points

And the firm has Scotland tightening as well The Sunday before the May 5th elections and from the information that’s available as I write YouGov has YES closing the gap from 18 points last Tuesday to 10 points overnight in its Sunday Times poll. The firm has a split of 55-45 amongst decided voters. I wonder whether the heightened anti-Tory rhetoric from some Lib Dems is taking a bit of the pressure off Nick Clegg who has been the main…

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