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Category: Referendum

How much of an influence will money have on the Independence referendum?

How much of an influence will money have on the Independence referendum?

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and the 2015 General election? The Sunday Times reported over the weekend that the no campaign was in disarray, due to major unionist parties donors not willing to donate to the no campaign. Willie Haughey, a tycoon who has given Labour about £1.3m since 2003, is the latest in a series of wealthy unionist businessmen refusing to back the No campaign. Sir Jack Harvie, a Scottish construction tycoon who has raised about £16m for the Tories, has already made it…

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Will being called ‘Skintland’ boost the YES or NO campaigns?

Will being called ‘Skintland’ boost the YES or NO campaigns?

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What’ll the “Economist cover” do to the referendum? Above is a version of what’s said to be the front cover of the latest Economist which hasn’t going down too well in nationalist circles overnight north of the border. As can be seen Scotland has been renamed “Skintland“; the country’s capital becomes “Edinborrow“; the Orkneys and Shetlands are dubbed the “Orkward” and “Shutlands” islands while the Lowlands region is termed “Loanlands“. Amongst the other re-namings are “Grumpians” for Grampians, “Aberdown” for…

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Could an EU referendum go the same way as AV?

Could an EU referendum go the same way as AV?

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Do Brits generally vote for the status quo? The wonderful Archbishop Cramner blog has an insightful post in which he poses the question of whether the much sought after referendum on leaving the EU could end up with the same outcome as on AV last May. He argues: “..The pro-AV campaign was disunited, poorly articulated, badly led, painfully patronised and hopelessly disorganised. Against all that, its generous and credible funding went absolutely nowhere. Similarly, on the matter of an EU…

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Remember when ICM and YouGov last went head to head?

Remember when ICM and YouGov last went head to head?

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The big polling news of the week has been the difference view between the online pollster, YouGov, and the phone firm ICM on what voters are now thinking. The former has had Labour with leads of 5% or more all week – the latter, for the second month running, had the Conservatives with a one point lead. A big difference between the two has been with the Lib Dem share. For YouGov has this at 9% while ICM had it…

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Introducing Daan – winner of the PB/William Hill prize

Introducing Daan – winner of the PB/William Hill prize

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His entry: 32.02% against the actual 32.1% – so pretty Daan close! The PB/William Hill AV prediction competition has been won by Daan Arroo who is a first-year physics student at Durham University. He now receives the prize of £1,000 worth of free bets with William Hill. He tells me that he and voted for Labour and YES and goes on: “While I would have liked to see our voting system changed (although I’d have preferred changing it to STV…

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ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

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Do phone firms get better results? With barely a handful of declarations from Northern Ireland still to be made it’s almost a certainty that NO is going to win the referendum by a margin of about 68.5% to YES’s 31.5%. This is a great achievement for Matthew Elliot and all at NO2AV as well as to ICM whose final poll published in the Guardian on Wednesday evening had it 68-32. Interestingly, as the chart shows, it was the two phone…

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Which pollster will win the referendum polling race?

Which pollster will win the referendum polling race?

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Cast your vote in the quickie election day poll While we wait for some hard news let’s speculate about the Great 2011 Polling Race. The next twenty-four hours or so are going to be pretty tense for the four polling organisations that carried out regular AV surveys as well as a final week poll. Their projected outcomes – a NO victory – are not in doubt but which one will be nearest to the vote share? There is enormous kudos…

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What’s the turnout looking like in your area?

What’s the turnout looking like in your area?

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Can you post brief reports? To help us get a sense of how things look on the ground can you let fellow PBers know what things are like in your area? I’ve been doing some telling and at my polling station they had issued less than 10% of the ballots by 2pm. That sounds very low especially as there is the election for mayor, all the borough councillors as well as the referendum. Normally in this ward we get about…

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