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Category: Referendum

Are these five the clincher in the AV referendum?

Are these five the clincher in the AV referendum?

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What’ll be the impact of Labour’s “old guard” saying NO? With less than six months to go before the referendum on electoral reform No to AV campaign has announced the backing of five of Labour’s old guard. All of them were cabinet ministers and all are familiar figures. Those opposed to change will be particularly pleased that former deputy Labour leader, Margaret Beckett, has agreed to become the president of the campaign and, no doubt, will a key public role…

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YouGov blows for the LDs on AV and Labour on the cuts

YouGov blows for the LDs on AV and Labour on the cuts

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“Stick with first past the post or stick with AV?” (YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% Switch to AV 32 24 32 70 Stick with first past the post 43 62 49 14 Wouldn’t vote/don’t know 25 14 19 16 “Blame for the spending cuts?” (YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% CON-LD coalition 20 1 52 5 Last Labour government 46 91 7 69 Both 22 5 25 15 Neither 7 2 13 6 Lots of polling has…

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Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

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Amended First past the post ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 65 78 78 35 Heard of it – not sure how it works 18 14 15 22 Never heard of FPTP 17 8 7 43 Alternative vote ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 33 48 38 14 Heard of it– not sure of…

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How much has Ed’s win boosted the pro-AV camp?

How much has Ed’s win boosted the pro-AV camp?

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Will he become a leading player in the referendum campaign? Last week’s Labour leadership election was one of the most high-profile AV election that the British public’s seen. It was also one which would probably tie Ed Miliband into the Yes team for the referendum, even were he not already inclined that way. After he only took the lead on the final transfer of votes, it would undermine his own position to do anything else. The question is how energetically…

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WANTED: Someone to put the NO case

WANTED: Someone to put the NO case

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OpenDemocracy Could you write a PB guest slot? At the start of September I’m going to be out of the country for a few days and I’m setting up some guest slots in advance. Rod Crosby has been commissioned to write a “The case for voting YES” in the AV referendum and I’m looking for someone to present the NO argument. Dont’ write anything yet but if you’d like to have a bash email me first here. I’ll need it…

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Does the ‘No’ campaign have the edge?

Does the ‘No’ campaign have the edge?

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Tom Harris blog Who will win the AV referendum? News broke overnight that Matthew Elliott, founder of the Taxpayers’ Alliance and BigBrotherWatch, will be leading the ‘No 2 AV’ campaign in the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform. Guido has linked to the a betting exchange suggesting a ‘Yes’ win at time of writing. However, if you wander over to Ladbrokes, you’ll find the ‘No’ priced at 2/5 and the ‘Yes’ at 7/4 (again at time of writing). Now it doesn’t take…

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Would this outcome have scuppered a CON-LD deal?

Would this outcome have scuppered a CON-LD deal?

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British Election Study Would it have taken away the “TINA defence”? Those old to remember the Thatcher years will recall what came to be known as TINA – “There is no alterative” – her refrain when her policies were challenged. Well I wonder whether TINA has returned as the fact of the coalition continues to dominate the political debate. The above projection on what AV would have done to the 2010 election outcome is part a mass of information now…

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The EdM price tightens following LFF projection

The EdM price tightens following LFF projection

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Candidate Membership MPs/MEPs Trade Unions Electoral College David Miliband 34.9 38.87 26.08 33.28 Ed Miliband 30.8 27.94 39.5 32.75 Diane Abbott 20.4 6.07 15.23 13.90 Andy Burnham 9 13.77 12.87 11.88 Ed Balls 4.9 13.36 6.32 8.19 But are the brothers really neck and neck? There’ve been sharpish moves to EdM overnight on Betfair following a projected result published on the Left Foot Forward, the blog edited by Will Straw. On Monday EdM was trading in the 3.75 – 3.8…

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