|First past the post||ALL %||AV voters||FPTP voters||WON’T VOTE|
|Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works||65||78||78||35|
|Heard of it â€“ not sure how it works||18||14||15||22|
|Never heard of FPTP||17||8||7||43|
|Alternative vote||ALL %||AV voters||FPTP voters||WON’T VOTE|
|Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works||33||48||38||14|
|Heard of itâ€“ not sure of how it works||35||34||40||29|
|Never heard of AV||32||19||22||57|
Should the NO campaign be worried about this data?
The above data comes from a YouGov poll for the Constitution Society which found, like other recent surveys, that by a small margin voters are against a switch the Alternative Vote system.
NOTE: The columns are based on what respondents said they would do in the referendum. The rows are their responses to questions about their understanding of the voting systems. So the first column breaks down the responses of those who said they were voting for AV. The second for those voting for FPTP.
Although it’s hard to measure at this stage turnout is probably going to be quite low, particularly in those areas where there are not simultaneous local council or Scottish/Welsh parliament elections.
What has cheered AV supporters like Rod Crosby on the previous thread is the detailed breakdown of the data by people’s knowledge of how the voting system options actually work.
Just look at the 48-38 split for AV amongst those who say they have a broad idea of how AV works. In fact the less people know about AV then the more likely they are to be in favour of first past the post.
As Jay Blanc of Electoral Trend argues: “Since it’s going to be the government’s duty to educate people about what the referendum is about, and what AV is, this means that the Yes campaign will have half it’s job done for it….this can only be a disadvantage to the No campaign since it’s hard to keep people ignorant.”
I’m not fully convinced that you can go directly to that conclusion. I do think, however, that those most keen on change are more likely to turnout.