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Category: Referendum

A YES campaigner asks: “Where did it all go wrong”?

A YES campaigner asks: “Where did it all go wrong”?

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A PB guest slot by Gavin Baylis Some early polls showed the Yes campaign leading in the alternative vote (AV) referendum; but the final polls suggest an overwhelming defeat. So where did it all go wrong? Firstly, undecided voters tend to back the status quo in the final stages of the campaign. In the US, pollsters find there are many ‘don’t knows’ as well as supporters and opponents of an incumbent. Pollsters argue that in early polls, what matters is…

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The hunt’s on for Ben Page’s mystery poll

The hunt’s on for Ben Page’s mystery poll

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Could YES really be ahead? The above message from Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, was posted less than an hour ago and has even affected the betting markets. His suggestion that there is a poll about with a YES lead of one point is extraordinary giving yesterday’s numbers from ComRes showing a 66-34 split to NO. My understanding is that there are three polls to come later today – Angus Reid, ICM and YouGov. Could it be that Ben has…

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Who’ll win the AV polling race?

Who’ll win the AV polling race?

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How’ll the firms deal with the “Ratty factor”? I love Marf’s exclusive cartoon for PB this morning – particularly Ratty’s graffiti “Who cares”? For that sentiment, surely, represents perhaps the biggest fear for the pollsters whose final surveys will be tested against real results this Friday. People might respond “Yes” or “No” when called in a survey and they might say they are 100% certain of voting but can we really believe them? The figures from the detailed data are…

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YouGov has the NO2AV lead down by eight points

YouGov has the NO2AV lead down by eight points

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And the firm has Scotland tightening as well The Sunday before the May 5th elections and from the information that’s available as I write YouGov has YES closing the gap from 18 points last Tuesday to 10 points overnight in its Sunday Times poll. The firm has a split of 55-45 amongst decided voters. I wonder whether the heightened anti-Tory rhetoric from some Lib Dems is taking a bit of the pressure off Nick Clegg who has been the main…

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Any regrets about your Willliam Hill/PB AV prediction?

Any regrets about your Willliam Hill/PB AV prediction?

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Who’s going to be the winner of our biggest prize? In early February the bookmakers, William Hills agreed to provide a competition prize of £1,000 of free bets to the PBer who makes the closest prediction to the AV referendum result. All you had to do was record what you thought the YES percentage would be to within two decimal points. The prize will got to the one who gets closest to the figure reported on the BBC website after…

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Should we be wary about bank holiday polling?

Should we be wary about bank holiday polling?

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Populus May 2005 A reminder of this shocker from 2005? At a big polling conference before the 2010 general election the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, touched on the challenges of carrying out surveys over bank holiday weekends and referred to the above famous Populus poll from 2005. For fieldwork took place over the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before the May 5 2005 general election day and came out with a 14 point Labour lead – three days later Blair’s…

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Can the Labour YES poster help turn it round?

Can the Labour YES poster help turn it round?

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Is attacking Dave/George going to resonate? I am told that this ad is being used in strong Labour areas, particularly in the north. To me the linking of the local elections, the referendum and using the Labour logo is quite smart and for some audiences might be quite effective. This is all part of the Mandy attack strategy that we saw last night – put the focus on Cameron/Osborne not on Clegg. We shall see if it works. UPDATE The…

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Are Labour voters going to stay 50:50 on AV?

Are Labour voters going to stay 50:50 on AV?

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Will the new “hurt George and Dave” effort change views? My reading of the referendum battle is that the only way that YES can come back from behind is if there’s a sizeable switch of Labour voters to their side. Currently it’s broadly 50:50 which reflects the views of the parliamentary party. It really needs to be 60:40 for the effort to abandon FPTP is to be successful. Ed Miliband has hardly been conspicuous in his advocacy of the side…

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