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Category: Polls

How long will EdM be dogged by the manner of his victory?

How long will EdM be dogged by the manner of his victory?

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Can his new PR team turn the media narrative around? The mail-pack featured above, from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s leadership election, played a pivotal role three months ago in winning the prize for the younger Miliband brother. It was developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions as part of a plan to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the voting packs for September’s…

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Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

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Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/ 12/12/10 38 39 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 And EdM takes a hit in his approval ratings We’ve have to wait a long time for it but the first non-YouGov poll of the month, from Ipsos-MORI, is just out and has the Lib Dems down to 11% – a share…

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Is Labour’s return next time almost a foregone conclusion?

Is Labour’s return next time almost a foregone conclusion?

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Guardian What do we think of Polly’s election prediction? Although the next general election might not take place until May 2015 there’s what amounts to a big prediction by Guardian columnist, Polly Toynbee, in the paper this morning. Talking about a “red carpet of opportunity” awaiting Labour she declares that “Cameron will be doomed by his cuts and Clegg by his betrayal.” In fact Polly is so confident is about what’s going to happen that she’s now referring to “Labour…

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Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

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Latest PAPA Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % GE accuracy ranking ICM/Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 2= Populus/Times 24/10/10       2= Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 2= ComRes/Independent 29/11/10 36 40 12 5= YouGov/Sun 11/12/10 40 42 9 8 Angus Reid/Politicalbetting 29/11/10 35 40 13 9= ***PAPA*** LATEST 36.6 39.8 12.4 – And the LDs back to single figures with YouGov For nearly a fortnight the YouGov daily poll has had the Tories equal or ahead…

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Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

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How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) Voted at the 2010 general election Didn’t vote at the 2010 election Conservative supporters 91% 9% Labour supporters 82% 18% Lib Dem supporters 92% 8% The above is taken from the latest ComRs data on its new poll and seeks to break down current supporters into those who said they did vote at the last election and those who, for whatever reason didn’t. Whether you have voted in the past or not…

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Labour touch 40 for the first time with ComRes

Labour touch 40 for the first time with ComRes

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18 And the yellows drop to 12…

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As the polling industry gather for its election post-mortem….

As the polling industry gather for its election post-mortem….

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Pollster Firm Prediction Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32 Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+ Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30 Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10 Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50 Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20 John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+ …remember these April 11th predictions? With almost all the leading figures in the polling industry getting together today for their general election post-mortem I thought…

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Labour take three point lead with Ipsos-MORI

Labour take three point lead with Ipsos-MORI

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Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 The red team at its highest level since October 2007 The first non-YouGov poll of November, from Ipsos-MORI, is just out and is in line with the trend from YouGov in showing a movement to Labour. The share of 39% is the highest from the firm since…

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