Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) Voted at the 2010 general election Didn’t vote at the 2010 election
Conservative supporters 91% 9%
Labour supporters 82% 18%
Lib Dem supporters 92% 8%

The above is taken from the latest ComRs data on its new poll and seeks to break down current supporters into those who said they did vote at the last election and those who, for whatever reason didn’t.

Whether you have voted in the past or not is, as was discussed at last week’s big polling conference, a good guide to future activity and, indeed, the leading pollster, ICM, now down-weights the responses of those who say they didn’t

ComRes doesn’t do that and presents it data in a way that make it possibly to determine precisely the proportion of non-last general election voters who feature as current supporters of each of the party.

As can be seen the Labour non-voting proportion is 18% which is considerably higher than the 9% for the Tories and 8% for the Lib Dems.

Mike Smithson

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