Online polls rule. OK? Online polls are taking over the UK polling industry. So far in 2011 no less than 96 vote intention polls have been published, 84 of which have been conducted online, just 12 by telephone. Of the 84 online polls 63 (and counting …) have been conducted by YouGov, 21 by others. On average, telephone polls have had the Conservatives and Labour each around 1.5% lower than online polls and perhaps most significantly for the tone of…
Now something for the NO campaigners to smile about A new Populus poll for the Times just out has a YES 47% to NO 53% split amongst decided voters. (NOTE that in line with PB practice the figure were use are re-percentaged so proper comparison can be made with other surveys.) This will come as a blow to the YES camp just after a YouGov poll suggested that opinion was moving in the other direction. As yet we have not…
Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only YouGov/Sun Times 01/04/11 52 (+1) 48 (-1) Findings weighted according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll on March 18. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 51 (-4) 49 (+4) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 3. Politically weighted via past…
But how important is the recognition factor? There’s a new Scottish poll out in the Sunday Times by PanelBase – a pollster that I have not heard of before. The voting intention figures are in the revised Scottish voting table below and show an SNP lead of five points in the regional section while level-pegging with Labour in the constituency one. An interesting variant is that poll participants were shown pictures of the party leaders and were asked whether they…
Welsh Assembly election poll Result 2007 YouGov poll Jan 2011 YouGov Poll 02/03/11 YouGov poll 30/03/11 Constituency vote Labour 32% 45% 48% 47% Conservative 22% 21% 20% 21% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% 17% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% 8% Others 8% 6% 7% 7% Regional vote Labour 30% 41% 45% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% 16% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% 8% UKIP 4% 4%…
Will we get polling from the high turnout province? In almost all the discussions on the May 5th referendum nobody seems to be considering that part of the UK that almost always has the highest turnout in elections of all kinds – Northern Ireland. For on the same day there are the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly where, four years ago, the turnout exceeded 63%. If that’s repeated it could easily be double the overall average turnout level for…
Meeting the Boojum The YouGov Budget poll provides an opportunity to investigate where the Lib Dems from 2010 have gone. Regardless of the fact that different pollsters have found different levels of support for cuts/Coalition economic competence/blame levels, when we look internally in a poll which provides breakdowns by 2010 vote and current preference, we should (hopefully) be able to track some of the net churn. So, in the YouGov poll, the first thing we see is that either the…
The Sun Labour’s ratings on the economy slip back The first voting intention survey since the budget, the Sun/YouGov had CON 37: LAB 41: LD 11 – the best figure for the blues s since February and equalling the best for the yellows. The gap was down to four points. In other questions there’s also good news for both Osborne personally and the coalition government generally. The survey found that 38% of those sampled trust the coalition on the economy,…