Why the reluctance to reveal the numbers? Three weeks ago today the country’s most accurate pollster when judged against real elections, ICM, was completing its August political poll for the Guardian – something that it has been doing each month for almost a quarter of a century. The numbers showing the very small change on a month earlier are in the chart, CON 37: LAB 36: LD 17, are broadly consistent with what we are used to from the phone…
BBC news As I reported last night I had an accident yesterday and am just recovering quietly at home – so there’ll be limited posting from me for the next day or so. The big polling news in the past 24 hours has been the Ipsos-MORI survey of Scotland which shows a big swing to the SNP, These are the figures:- Westminster voting intention (May 2010 election) SNP 42% (+22%) Lab 33% (-9%) Con 15% (-2%) LD 6% (-13%) Other…
Remember Scotland May 5 2011? There was as lot of excitement on Tuesday night when the News International/YouGov daily poll came out showing the Tories on 39% – just one point behind Labour on 40% – the smallest Labour lead for months. Last night’s poll had it looking differently although the changes, Labour up 2 the Tories down 2, were within the margin of error. But how much notice should we take of the daily changes from the online pollster…
The latest YouGov daily poll for News International overnight had the Labour lead over the Tories at just 1% – the closest it’s been since January. This means that the gap between the main two parties at least brings it a bit closer to the latest from country’s most accurate pollster when tested against real elections, ICM. Last week, for the second month running, ICM had the Tories on 37% one point ahead of Labour on 36% – a poll…
Is the paper embarrassed by what its pollster is finding? After yesterday’s article looking at what happened the last time pollsters were tested against real election results a PB regular contacted me to say that the latest ICM poll was not covered in the print edition of the Guardian. I found that hard to believe so I’ve just popped into my local public library to go through this week’s print editions of the paper. I might have missed it and…
The big polling news of the week has been the difference view between the online pollster, YouGov, and the phone firm ICM on what voters are now thinking. The former has had Labour with leads of 5% or more all week – the latter, for the second month running, had the Conservatives with a one point lead. A big difference between the two has been with the Lib Dem share. For YouGov has this at 9% while ICM had it…
And there’s little change in the leader ratings The Ipsos-MORI political monitor for August is just out from Reuters and shows little change on July with the exception of Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems. The party sees its share move up 4 to 15% – a change that is in line with the ICM figures earlier in the week that had the yellows on 17%. The MORI 15% is the highest share from the pollster since last September. These figures from…
And Clegg’s party edges up to 17% For the second month running Britian’s most accurate pollster when tested against real national elections, ICM, is recording a one point lead for the Tories. It also has the Lib Dems on 17%. The survey for the Guardian, carried out from Friday until Sunday, has the Tories standing still on 37%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems moving up a point to 17%. The detail of the poll shows a sharp reduction…