And Clegg’s party edges up to 17%
For the second month running Britian’s most accurate pollster when tested against real national elections, ICM, is recording a one point lead for the Tories. It also has the Lib Dems on 17%.
The survey for the Guardian, carried out from Friday until Sunday, has the Tories standing still on 37%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems moving up a point to 17%.
The detail of the poll shows a sharp reduction in the proportion of 2010 Lib Dem voters who now say they are voting Labour. This is down to just one in seven and contrasts sharply with getting on for 30% seen in polls in the immediate aftermath of the fees debacle.
The reason why ICM appears out of line with other firms, particularly YouGov, is methodological. Unlike others firms ICM has a very strict turnout filter and heavily discounts the responses of those who did not vote at the last election. It also allocates a proportion of the “will vote – won’t says” in line with what respondents said they did at the last election.
In May 2010 and at the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election this made their polling more accurate.
Interestingly ICM has not recorded a share for Labour of 40% or more since the election. YouGov, with its controversial newspaper weightings, has has the party at 40 or above in all but one of its last 140 surveys.
On the riots 70% said that that those convicted of riot-related offences should receive a tougher sentence than they might ordinarily expect to have got.
Overall a good poll for the coalition partners and a poor one for Labour.