The latest YouGov daily poll for News International overnight had the Labour lead over the Tories at just 1% – the closest it’s been since January. This means that the gap between the main two parties at least brings it a bit closer to the latest from country’s most accurate pollster when tested against real elections, ICM.
Last week, for the second month running, ICM had the Tories on 37% one point ahead of Labour on 36% – a poll outcome that contrasted sharply with a YouGov survey taken at the same time which had Labour on 44% – nine points ahead of the Tories.
YouGov has only reported a Labour share below 40% once since December 2010. ICM has not had the party out of the 30s since the general election.
By the weekend in the YouGov Sunday Times poll the Labour share was down to 41% with the Tories on 38% – so it could be that we are seeing a trend.
The online pollster understated the NO lead in May’s referendum by 15.8%. ICM had the outcome accurate to within 0.2%.
There’ll be a new daily poll out tonight.