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Category: Oldham E & Saddleworth

Is the Lib Dem poll slump an image thing?

Is the Lib Dem poll slump an image thing?

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< And what implications for the by-election? One of the most striking features of the opinion poll movements since the general election is the disparity between the performance of the two coalition partners. The Conservatives have never polled less than their election score of 37% with YouGov, although they have been a little lower with other firms. By contrast, the Lib Dems have lost close to two-thirds of theirs if the most recent YouGov survey is on the mark. Other...

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Are Labour’s hopes based on the coalition vote splitting?

Are Labour’s hopes based on the coalition vote splitting?

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Saddleworth News But what if yellows/blues are seen as having the best chance? I’m coming to the view that the single most important event in the final week of this campaign will be the opinion poll, now expected at the weekend, and whether it shows the Tories or the Lib Dems as being best placed to beat Labour. For the one reason why Labour are favourites in a seat which they won with 31.9% at the general election is that…

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HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

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Is this the group that will destroy LD hopes? Labour has already drawn attention to the decision by the Liberal Democrats to break with tradition and move the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. The effect of the timing was to seemingly disenfranchise up to 1000 students not yet returning for their studies. Cunning manoeuvre? Yep. New politics? Not exactly. However it is another group of voters that should be causing the Lib Dems greater anxiety in the…

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Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

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Oldham E & Saddleworth postal voting Postal ballots issued Valid postal votes cast General Election May 6 2010 10,518 8,316 By-election Jan 13 2011 10,251 ???? Why are the numbers on the decline? We’ve now got the above numbers for the number of postal ballots that have been issued in the by-election which show, extraordinarily, that there’ll be fewer postal voters in next Thursday’s by-election than there were at the general election. So what you might say but the fact…

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Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

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“Victory for the Lib Dems in Oldham is now as unlikely as Manchester United finishing at the bottom of this year’s Premier League with Roy Keane in charge!” – Ken Robertson, Paddy Power” Fine – but how come that you are only offering 7/2 against Elwyn Watkins – the Lib Dem candidate. If it was that remote then surely you’d be happy to to lay bets at 100/1 or longer. Political punters are interested in odds – not hyperbole. It’s…

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What about some second place by-election betting?

What about some second place by-election betting?

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The Abrahams (L) and Asif (R) pictures are from Saddleworth News Which of these three could finish as runner-up? With just a week to go before what has become the most intriguing by election for at least a generation this post is very much a plea to the bookies to open up some more interesting Old & Sad markets. This, as has been repeatedly argued, a three way marginal with any of the three main party candidates having a chance…

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Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

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UK.Weather.com Which party is most affected by inclement conditions? The traditional view has always been that the worse the weather conditions in the run-up and on polling day then the the party that is impeded most is Labour. In recent winter by-elections, however, Labour has done very well so I’m not sure about the old theory So what are we to make of the ten-day weather forecast for Oldham, covering a week on Thursday, which shows that it’s going to…

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Is “Brand Elwyn” much stronger than “Brand Lib Dem”?

Is “Brand Elwyn” much stronger than “Brand Lib Dem”?

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Picture from Saddleworth News Why I now rate his chances at 40% We’ve seen it time and time again – in fierce by-elections the character, personality and image of the main party candidates can become all important in whether they succeed or fail. These encounters move on from being battles between parties to who electors feel is the best individual most able to represent their area. So it is that in Old & Sad the narrative from the yellows is…

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