Who has got the edge as postal voting begins If things have been going to plan then thousands of electors in Oldham East and Saddleworth will be receiving their by-election voting packs in this morning’s mail. We haven’t got a figure yet on the number of postal votes but at the general election it was 8,316 out of 45,092 votes. Given an expected smaller turnout and the efforts that the red and yellows have been making getting supporters signed up…
Will the automated phone survey change the betting? I’ve just had word that the automated phone pollster, Survation, is carrying out a survey in Oldham East & Saddleworth ahead of the by-election. The firm carries out surveys, like a number of US pollsters, by automated phone calls. Respondees answer by keying in their answers on the key-pad of their phones. ComRes used something similar for its post-debate general election polling when it was trying to produce an almost instant response….
Event Rentoul’s Predictions for 2011 Date Oldham E & Saddleworth “Labour gain†13/01/11 Welsh referendum “Labour-Plaid Cymru gain†03/03/11 AV referendum “Lib Dem loss†05/05/11 The economy “Conservative gain†31/12/11 What do we think of the Blair biographer’s predictions? The Indy on Sunday’s political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, has published a list of his main predictions for 2011 and they are set out in the table above. While I do think that Labour’s got a good chance in…
Oldham E & Saddleworth by-election betting LABOUR LIB DEMS TORIES Ladbrokes 1/4 4/1 14/1 William Hill 1/6 9/2 11/1 Victor Chandler 1/6 9/2 10/1 PaddyPower 2/11 10/3 12/1 Bet365 1/4 7/2 16/1 SkyBet 2/11 7/2 25/1 Betfair 0.18/1 5.4/1 31/1 Smarkets 1/4 75/20 22/1 Labour remain strong odds-on favourites With the postal vote packs in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election due to be mailed out in the next couple of days the latest by-election betting shows a weakening of…
Would the smarter strategy be to talk them up? An intriguing feature of Labour’s OES by-election campaign is that it is trying to confirm the ongoing media narrative that the Tories are not really trying. The party’s campaign manager, Iain Wright who got into parliament after winning the 2004 Hartlepool by-election, has been saying “I have seen no activity from the Tories whatsoever. I think they have left it too late.” On the face of it you’d think that the…
Which party has netted the most? At the general election on May 6th 2010 a total of 8,316 of 45,092 votes that were cast in Oldham E & Saddleworth were postal ballots – that’s almost one in five and typical of what we saw in closely contested marginal seats. For the party machines like to “bank” as many votes as possible before the election so that on the day they can focus on getting the non-postal voters out. They are…
The UKIP By-election record Date UKIP share % Deposit Norwich North 23/07/09 11.8 Saved deposit Glenrothes 06/11/08 0.3 Lost deposit Henley 26/06/08 2.4 Lost deposit Crewe and Nantwich 22/05/08 2.2 Lost deposit Sedgefield 19/07/07 1.9 Lost deposit Ealing Southall 19/07/07 0.8 Lost deposit Bromley and Chislehurst 29/06/06 8.1 Saved deposit Dunfermline and West Fife 09/02/06 0.6 Lost deposit Livingston 29/09/05 0.4 Lost deposit Hartlepool 30/09/04 10.2 Saved deposit Brent East 18/09/03 0.7 Lost deposit Ipswich 22/11/01 1.0 Lost deposit West…
Oldham E & Saddleworth result – general election Party Votes % Change on 2005 Phil Woolas Labour 14186 31.9 -10.7 Elwyn Watkins Lib Dem 14083 31.6 -0.5 Kashif Ali Conservative 11773 26.4 8.7 Alwyn Stott BNP 2546 5.7 0.6 David Bentley UKIP 1720 3.9 1.8 Gulzar Nazir Christian Party 212 0.5 0.5 Are the blues being given permission to vote yellow? The big overnight Old & Sad story is a report from Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph saying that…