..or have too many people already voted? Tonight we’ll see the final set-piece in Labour’s four and a half month long leadership election – the appearance of all five contenders in a special Question Time debate on BBC1. Has this come too late to make a difference? Maybe – because all the signs are that a large proportion of those eligible to vote got their ballots in early soon after they arrived at the start of the month. Last weekend’s…
Independent Can we ignore this latest poll? There’s what might appear to be good news for the beleaguered David Miliband campaign in a ComRes poll for the Indy this morning. The sample consisted of 1,597 people who had voted Labour at least once since 1992 and all the findings seem to favour the ex-foreign secretary. Across a range of questions such as “preferred candidate”,” best opposition leader”, and “best PM” the elder Miliband is beating his brother by a factor…
Has the FT’s George Parker got this one right? I’ve just caught up with a perceptive piece by the FT’s George Parker on the Labour leadership race. He goes through the merits and shortcomings of the contenders and then concludes:- “.. David is the choice of those at the top of the party, who are keen to return to power. Alone, he has talked about rebuilding the coalition that won the party three election victories from 1997. His handicap is…
What will the new leader do to the polls? Last night on the thread the former Labour MP, Nick Palmer, was offering a wager that his party would be ahead in the polls by the end of the month. I don’t know whether there were any takers but his reasoning was faultless. The result of the leadership election will be announced a week on Saturday – on the first day of the party’s conference. All eyes will then be on…
Betfair Politics What else could change the betting in the next 11 days? With just a week and a half to go before the Labour leadership race comes to an end there’ve been big moves in the betting following the Sunday Times YouGov poll of members and trade unionists suggesting that the younger Miliband brother has moved into a small lead. On Saturday evening before the news came out the EdM price on Betfair was 4/1. That’s moved in to…
Members Trade unionists MPs/MEPs Ed Miliband 52 (+2) 57 (+13) 44 (-1) David Miliband 48 (-2) 43 (-13) 56 (+1) Could DaveM suffer from the David Davis effect? At last! A new YouGov poll of party members and those trade unionists who are able to vote in Labour’s leadership election – and how things have changed since the last such survey at the end of July. A key part of David Miliband’s strategy as he’s sought to win the Labour…
Watch the programme for yourself here.
How good is YouGov polling of Labour 56 days out? With David Miliband moving in the betting to being an 80% favourite perhaps we ought to reflect again on the ONLY poll of Labour and fee paying TU members who have been voting in this election. That survey closed 56 days before the end of voting. We’ve had nothing since and the Labour race of 2010 looks set to be the most under-polled leadership election of recent times. Even the…