Browsed by
Category: Labour leadership

How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

Comments 0 Comment

How Corbyn could stop Burnham winning the Labour leadership http://t.co/2f88L4Rpcs pic.twitter.com/lgVdxNMvrt — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2015 Many thanks to Richard Nabavi for posting this article by Peter Kellner on the previous thread. Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago. If you’re not sure how the Alternative Vote system works, this…

Read More Read More

Don Brind says Labour hopefuls know their party’s future isn’t in their hands

Don Brind says Labour hopefuls know their party’s future isn’t in their hands

Comments 0 Comment

It’s one of the toughest gigs in politics – going on after TV after a defeat to explain that, really,  your party had done quite well in the circumstances. The man holding the Labour short straw on the BBC on Friday morning April 10th 1992 was a middle-rankingsShadow minister — one Tony Blair.  I came across the BBC archive on YouTube few days ago, which is the video above, I didn’t see it at the time having worked through the…

Read More Read More

Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

Comments 0 Comment

Yvette should be the most disappointed This ORB poll for the Independent was conducted among all voters, not Labour members, Andy Burnham will be delighted with these figures, he can cite that the wider electorate perceive him as the candidate who will do the most to improve Labour’s chances at the next election, which should do his leadership ambitions no harm. The most interesting aspect of this poll is Liz Kendall’s numbers, she’s second to Burnham in this poll, both…

Read More Read More

Betting on the date of the EU referendum

Betting on the date of the EU referendum

Comments 0 Comment

Over the weekend, stories emerged, which were downplayed by Number 10, that the EU referendum  was set for October 2016.  Then the Telegraph’s Chief Political Correspondent tweeted this afternoon. David Cameron could secure EU deal in time for October’s Tory party conference, Number 10 has indicated today. By me: http://t.co/519i3mJ491 — Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) June 22, 2015 It looks like July to October 2016 would be the optimal time to hold the referendum from Cameron’s point of view and William Hill’s 3/1…

Read More Read More

Latest on the Labour leadership race

Latest on the Labour leadership race

Comments 0 Comment

We may soon see crossover between Burnham & Cooper Betfair exchange trend chart showing Burnham's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/2JtiIAkO2k — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Betfair exchange trend chart showing Cooper's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/HP7A9FuY7i — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Implied percentages from the Betfair odds for winning the Labour leadership just now are 39.37% for Burnham and 36.23% for Cooper. This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more…

Read More Read More

Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

Comments 0 Comment

There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband. During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. Any mistake or poor polling will…

Read More Read More

David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov,…

Read More Read More

Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

Comments 0 Comment

Why Yvette is the smart bet For obvious reasons there isn’t a lot of polling out there at the moment. This makes following the true state of the Labour leadership contest quite tricky. Fortunately, we had a poll yesterday from Ipsos Mori that looked at the Labour leadership among the general public and Labour voters. The tables are here. Let’s get the caveats out of the way first. Labour ‘voters’ are not necessarily representative of the membership that will actually…

Read More Read More