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So will Ireland vote Yes this time?

So will Ireland vote Yes this time?

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***This thread for Irish Election only*** ***Click here for UK polling thread*** Irish Times Live results thread – how accurate will the Fine Gael exit poll be? Counting began at 9am in the 43 constituencies, with early numbers from the tallymen expected within the first two hours – these have been very accurate in previous Irish general elections and in the Lisbon referendum last June. We should have a very clear idea of how Ireland has voted by lunchtime if…

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Is Cameron preparing to take on his party over Lisbon?

Is Cameron preparing to take on his party over Lisbon?

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Daily Express How would a referendum U-turn go down in Manchester? Tomorrow the Irish vote in their second referendum on the EU Lisbon treaty with the results being known the following day – just as delegates to the Conservative conference begin arriving in Manchester. The story featured above from the Daily Express gives a sense of the minefield Cameron might have to negotiate should, as expected the Irish vote YES. With the Czech government said to be on the point…

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Germany 2009 Election Night Special

Germany 2009 Election Night Special

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Die Zeit ZDF Seats projection CDU/CSU + FDP = 320 seats = new govt ZDF Exit poll: CDU/CSU 33.5 SPD 23.5 FDP 14.5 Linke 13 Greens 10 Welcome to PB’s coverage of German election night 2009, after what’s been seen as a generally dull campaign. Despite good weather in Germany, early afternoon indications were that turnout was several points down on 2005. Useful links: Official results Live market prices ARD ZDF Election.de Double Carpet

Could the “Gael Poll” be an elaborate hoax?

Could the “Gael Poll” be an elaborate hoax?

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Google News Search Have I just wasted £100? Yesterday evening I got a call and an email purporting to be from the UKIP press office alerting me to a poll that was just coming out showing the the NO campaign in the Irish Lisbon referendum had taken a substantial lead. It was said that before the 2008 referendum the same pollster had had a survey in the Irish Sun which had produced a prediction, within one percent, of the final…

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All aboard for a black-yellow coalition?

All aboard for a black-yellow coalition?

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But the odds for the CDU/CSU + FDP are drifting So, a narrow re-election for Stoltenberg and the centre-left coalition in Norway, with its four (blonde) female party leaders and the Liberal leader resigning after the party was reduced to just two seats. Did anyone back Jens at the short odds-on prices? Next up is Germany, which votes a week today. Merkel trades at 1.08 (1/12) in the “next Chancellor” market on Betfair which I think should be pretty much…

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Could this message impede the Irish YES band-wagon?

Could this message impede the Irish YES band-wagon?

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Is the “NO” campaign now just too far behind? We are not very far off the second Irish Lisbon treaty referendum which takes place on Friday October 2 – and the result will be known just as Conservative conference delegates begin heading for Manchester for the last of the party conferences before the general election. The result could have a big impact on the politics of the UK as well as the politics of Europe for if the Irish are…

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Are you on the autumn’s first betting heat?

Are you on the autumn’s first betting heat?

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Ladbrokes Labour’s Stoltenberg is firm PM favourite despite tight polls Yukio Hatoyama is set to be officially confirmed as Japan’s new Prime Minister this week, but already the international circus has moved on, and tomorrow will see the first election of the autumn with serious betting interest, in the shape of Norway. The above market from Ladbrokes (such is the betting importance of Norway that the Magic Sign have a local trading desk) shows that Labour’s Jens Stoltenberg is a…

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The return of the unstable democracies

The return of the unstable democracies

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Greece, and probably Canada, set for autumn elections Democracy in all its forms is a curious beast, and while some democracies are politically stable, the already busy political autumn of 2009 looks set to be joined by elections in two of its less stable members, as international politics got underway in earnest this week, following last Sunday’s elections in Japan and three German Lander. Greece will hold a general election on Sunday 4th October, barely two years into the 4-year…

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