Is the “NO” campaign now just too far behind?
We are not very far off the second Irish Lisbon treaty referendum which takes place on Friday October 2 – and the result will be known just as Conservative conference delegates begin heading for Manchester for the last of the party conferences before the general election.
The result could have a big impact on the politics of the UK as well as the politics of Europe for if the Irish are unable to ratify then it’s surely curtains for the changes that the Lisbon treaty will bring about.
But the latest polling doesn’t look good for the NO campaigners and this is now being reflected in the betting.
PaddyPower make an overall YES vote percentage of between 55-60% their most favoured outcome and is offering odds of 13/8 on the total YES vote falling between 55-60% and 15/8 that it falls between 50-55%.
Despite recent support for the NO campaign by Libertas front man Declan Ganley current betting trends continue to point towards a landslide for YES with practically un-backable odds of 1/12. You can still get 1/8 that it’ll be a YES with Ladbrokes .
For me the big question is whether the NO campaign can gain traction with their “NO MEANS NO” approach. This could be a powerful closing argument because in many people’s eyes the fact that the first vote last year has simply been ignored just stinks.
There could be a convergence of opinion as we get closer and, of course, turnout is everything. I make money on a YES percentage of under 55%.