Could the “Gael Poll” be an elaborate hoax?

Could the “Gael Poll” be an elaborate hoax?

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Have I just wasted £100?

Yesterday evening I got a call and an email purporting to be from the UKIP press office alerting me to a poll that was just coming out showing the the NO campaign in the Irish Lisbon referendum had taken a substantial lead.

It was said that before the 2008 referendum the same pollster had had a survey in the Irish Sun which had produced a prediction, within one percent, of the final result.

I was urged to make contact with the man behind the Gael Poll who would explain the methodology.

A search of Google could not find any news organisation that was putting out these numbers. Seven hours later, (at the time of writing it’s now 2am), I still cannot find any independent verification. The search page above shows what happened when I put “Gael Poll” into Google news search.

Alas after the “poll” was being discussed on the previous thread I did put £100 on at 11/2 on a NO victory with PaddyPower. That might turn out to be pretty foolish for on reflection it does seem odd that the leading Irish bookie was still prepared to lay such a bet at that price.

The polls that have been published in the Irish media are all suggesting a solid YES victory.

Mike Smithson

***On PB2 – A post from me on the latest Bedford flare-up

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