Have I just wasted Â£100?
Yesterday evening I got a call and an email purporting to be from the UKIP press office alerting me to a poll that was just coming out showing the the NO campaign in the Irish Lisbon referendum had taken a substantial lead.
It was said that before the 2008 referendum the same pollster had had a survey in the Irish Sun which had produced a prediction, within one percent, of the final result.
I was urged to make contact with the man behind the Gael Poll who would explain the methodology.
A search of Google could not find any news organisation that was putting out these numbers. Seven hours later, (at the time of writing it’s now 2am), I still cannot find any independent verification. The search page above shows what happened when I put “Gael Poll” into Google news search.
Alas after the “poll” was being discussed on the previous thread I did put Â£100 on at 11/2 on a NO victory with PaddyPower. That might turn out to be pretty foolish for on reflection it does seem odd that the leading Irish bookie was still prepared to lay such a bet at that price.
The polls that have been published in the Irish media are all suggesting a solid YES victory.