Guest slot by David Lenton. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last 12 months then I’m sure you’ve heard of Julian Assange – you know that kinda weird looking guy from Wiki Leaks? Anyway in what can only be described as a self serving publicity stunt online bookmaker Stan James have decided it’s time to open up two betting markets surrounding Ecuador’s latest and greatest. How Will Assange Leave The Ecuadorian Embassy? The first of the two…
A guest slot by Financier The London Olympics has witnessed a magnificent competition by the global family of athletes (of many disciplines) who have strived for just three prizes in each event: gold, silver and bronze. There were no prizes for a plucky loser, no medals for a good effort and no award for “well-tried.” If you lost, then you lost. For many, it was quite apparent that the privilege of representing their country at the Olympics was the biggest…
James Kelly on the pro-independence campaign If there is to be a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum, a prerequisite is surely that the Yes campaign itself is as broadly-based as possible, and extends well beyond the SNP’s ranks. The potential is certainly there – the Scottish Green Party is supportive of independence, and its charismatic leader Patrick Harvie attended the Yes launch, where he was accorded virtual parity with Alex Salmond. The Scottish Socialist Party will also be…
Wikimedia Commons Sean Fear reviews the Mayoral and Assembly elections The London Mayoral election was closer than expected. Boris Johnson finished up beating Ken Livingstone by 44% to 40% on first preferences, and by 51.5 to 48.5% on second preferences. This was closer than the polls had predicted. It was nonetheless, an impressive performance for Johnson to hold on, when Labour were making sweeping gains across the country. Johnson is almost unique among Conservatives, in being able to appeal strongly…
Wikimedia Commons Sean Fear asks if this is a big chance for LAB? The London Mayoral contest rightly commands the lion’s share of public attention. There is, however, another set of elections, due to take place on May 3rd, for the London Assembly. The Assembly is a fairly toothless body, but it does offer a high profile to its members, some of whom, such as Bob Blackman, Angie Bray, Meg Hillier, and Bob Neil, have made their way into Parliament….
After the Slovak “No”, Mark Gill looks at polling on Europe There are many reasons explaining why European nations have different views on whether their country benefits from EU membership. History, political culture, geography and media all play an important part. Yet, the extent to which a nation is a net contributor of EU funds does not seem to have that much influence. True, the UK is one of the largest net contributors to EU coffers (even taking account of…
Mark Gill looks at the PM’s ratings ahead of today’s speech Prime minister David Cameron goes to Manchester as the second most popular of the last five prime ministers at the stage of their second party conferences. In Ipsos MORI’s September 2011 survey Camerons’s approval ratings were 39% satisfied and 52% dissatisfied, giving a net score of -13. This compares favourably against the -45 net approval for Brown (in Sept 2008), -27 for Major (in Sept 1992) and -23 for…
Do the blues have a long-term problem? There is currently a great deal of speculation that the Conservatives are failing to appeal to women voters and the party will suffer electorally because of this. Tories are right to be worried about the gender gap, but not necessarily about what has happened since the last general election. At the general election, the Conservatives enjoyed a 10 point lead over Labour among men (38% to 28%), but only a 5 point lead…