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Category: Guest Contribution

Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

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Henry G Manson on the lobbying bill. http://t.co/YGwgHKTdn3 Pic from http://t.co/Lghyxzdnvo pic.twitter.com/9OsvhyqtTG — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013     This Big Brother Bill Belongs to Zimbabwe Not Britain Hasty legislation usually makes for the lousy legislation. But for lousy and cynical legislation, look no further than the government’s ‘Transparency of Lobbying, Non-party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Bill’. It appears to be the latest sinister stunt from a Conservative Party looking to boost its chances in the run-up to the…

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Great Britain as a multi-party state

Great Britain as a multi-party state

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  If the opinion polls hold up then at the next election we’ll have four parties polling at least 10% of the vote for the first time in almost a century (the last and only time it previously occurred was in 1918, with the two Liberal factions alongside the Conservatives and Labour all achieving double figures, with 1922 being the only other election to come close). So what would this new state of affairs look like? In deference to Harry…

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antifrank looks ahead to 2013

antifrank looks ahead to 2013

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  So, what lies ahead for politics in 2013? Pausing only to admire my willingness to have a go, given my mediocre track record in predictions, let’s get stuck in. The current state of play Where are we now? For this, I can borrow wholesale from my summary from last year. The public doesn’t approve of the Coalition. The public doesn’t much like David Cameron. The public really doesn’t like Nick Clegg. The public doesn’t rate Ed Miliband either. The…

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How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

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James Kelly looks at the various scenarios. One thing is for sure – Scotland will be returning MPs to Westminster at the next general election, whenever it is held.  On the SNP’s proposed timetable, a Yes vote in the 2014 referendum would not result in an independent Scottish state coming into being until 2016. It is inconceivable that Scotland could remain part of the United Kingdom, even for a few months, without parliamentary representation.  Perhaps a provisional arrangement might be…

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Does the UK still have a global role?

Does the UK still have a global role?

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Guest slot by Financier. “For those immediate years of post-war austerity and exhaustion, still on rations as we watched our global empire unravel, birthed a national narrative that endured, with the odd interruption, for more than six decades. It is a story of decline, of Britain as a nation, once glorious, now reduced to a tired marginality, bobbing around in the Atlantic, stuck between Europe and a superpower United States.”  – Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian, 11th of August 2012. Recently, Defence…

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Can the SNP and Greens work together in the pro-independence campaign?

Can the SNP and Greens work together in the pro-independence campaign?

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James Kelly on the pro-independence campaign If there is to be a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum, a prerequisite is surely that the Yes campaign itself is as broadly-based as possible, and extends well beyond the SNP’s ranks. The potential is certainly there – the Scottish Green Party is supportive of independence, and its charismatic leader Patrick Harvie attended the Yes launch, where he was accorded virtual parity with Alex Salmond. The Scottish Socialist Party will also be…

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The Grey Marginals

The Grey Marginals

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Research by Dr Scott Davidson, De Montfort University Although the ageing of the UK population is well documented, less well understood are the implications for a first past the post electoral system such as ours, with the importance of marginal seats in campaigning. My research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are defending 57 “grey marginals” against the apparent rise in vote share for the Conservatives since 2005. A note on methods (more details in the full report). I…

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Got a Coin Handy?

Got a Coin Handy?

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A guest slot by Matthew Lebo, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stony Brook University Academics make electoral forecasts that differ from those of poll-watchers. First, we use historic data and statistical methods to make our predictions, not simply the latest polls. Second, in addition to accuracy, we also want to learn something about the fundamentals that move voters and decide elections. Third, we want to know more than how people would vote if an election were held today – we…

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