Would Labour be hurt most? Some interesting YouGov data this evening on how the creation of the coalition has shifted second preference choices – something that could be crucial if AV did come in. Not surprisingly Labour supporters are now less likely to opt for the Lib Dems while the yellows are more favourably disposed to the blues. There are, of course, fewer Lib Dem supporters now compared with the general election. Mike Smithson
2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…
Can we now rule out a second 2010 election? In spite of all the pre-VAT vote speculation only two Lib Dems MPs voted with the “Noes” in last night’s commons division on the plan to increase the rate to 20%, outlined in last week’s budget and the measure went through with a majority of 76. Judging by some of the pre-event build-up this rebellion was much smaller than was being suggested and, no doubt, both Clegg and Cameron will breathe…
Was Osborne’s aim to stop Labour doing this again? For me the above Labour PEB was by far the best piece of campaigning by any party at the election. It was designed to sow doubts about what a Tory government would do by focussing on key issues that affect middle income voters. The child credit was its first main point. If there was a single reason why Labour recovered so well in the closing days campaign it was because they…
Fieldwork Pollster/publication CON LAB LD 22-23 June YouGov / Sun 42 34 17 20-21 June YouGov / Sun 41 33 18 18-20 June ICM / The Guardian 39 31 21 18-20 June Ipsos MORI/Reuter 39 31 19 17-18 June YouGov / Sunday Times 39 34 19 16-17 June ComRes / Indy on Sunday 36 30 23 10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18 10-11 June BPIX (YouGov) / Mail on Sunday 39 32 19 1-9 June Harris/Metro 36…
Evening Standard blogs Could the ex-leader vote oppose the coalition budget? Reproduced above is part of a piece that was posted last night by the Evening Standard political writer, Paul Waugh. Clearly Kennedy, who was leader of the party until being forced out in the first week of 2006, is not a happy bunny. He is certainly no fan of the coalition – a view he shares with another former leader and one of those who ousted him, Ming Campbell….
Will the budget be less painful than its advanced billing? Just a day to go before the first budget of the new government and many of the papers are speculating over some of the horrendous things that they think that George Osborne will be announcing. But is the awfulness of what the coalition’s planning being talked up so that the reaction tomorrow afternoon is that it’s not as bad as was feared? It wouldn’t be the first time that expectations…
Could there be dangers in ceding the centre ground? The Evening Standard political writer, Paul Waugh, has made an astute observation about the Labour leadership race – it is taking the party leftwards. He noted: “…..David Miliband came up with a string of policies that will gladden the hearts of party activists and trade unions. Axeing £100million tax breaks for private schools was an easy hit and one that – surely completely unintentionally – drew attention to Diane Abbott’s praise…