|22-23 June||YouGov / Sun||42||34||17|
|20-21 June||YouGov / Sun||41||33||18|
|18-20 June||ICM / The Guardian||39||31||21|
|18-20 June||Ipsos MORI/Reuter||39||31||19|
|17-18 June||YouGov / Sunday Times||39||34||19|
|16-17 June||ComRes / Indy on Sunday||36||30||23|
|10-11 June||YouGov / Sunday Times||40||32||18|
|10-11 June||BPIX (YouGov) / Mail on Sunday||39||32||19|
|28-31 May||ComRes / The Independent||37||33||21|
|21-23 May||ICM / The Guardian||39||32||21|
|20-21 May||YouGov / Sunday Times||39||32||21|
|13-14 May||YouGov / Sunday Times||37||34||21|
|12-13 May||ICMÂ / Sunday Telegraph||38||33||21|
|12-13 May||ComRes / Indy on Sunday||38||34||21|
|General Election GB figures||37||29.7||23.6|
And the yellows take the hit with YouGov
There’s a new poll for the Sun from YouGov which was taken after the budget and has very good news for the Tories both on the voting intention shares and on the the measures themselves.
As I observed yesterday polls that are taken in the immediate aftermath of budgets should be treated with a bit of caution because they always tend to favour governments. It can take a few days before the overall impact sinks in.
It will be interesting to see how the party standing are at the weekend and next week particularly from the telephone pollsters.
The Lib Dem will be disappointed by their small share which might be affected by YouGov’s new weightings – see below.
The sample split 53% – 28% when asked whether the measures were good or bad for the economy. The coalition is also doing well on who is to blame.
|Responsibility for cuts?|
|Conservative â€“ Lib Dem coalition||18|
|Last Labour government||49|
The poll is also good news for George Osborne
|â€œChencellor – Good job â€“ bad job?â€||GOOD||BAD||DK|
|George Osborne now||43||24||33|
|Alistair Darling in 2009||20||53||27|
YouGov has been showing smaller Lib Dem shares compared with other pollsters and this might be due to its new party ID weightings. In spite of the election the Labour segment is still the largest and just one in eight of the sample is weighted to the Liberal Democrats.
If the phone pollsters that past vote weight also have the LDs down in the region of 17% then Clegg’s party could be worried.
|YouGov’s new party ID weightings|