Thanks to Barnesian, whose idea it was and whose Zoom account we will be using, there will be a PB Election night Zoom gathering. The thinking is to start just before midnight when the polls close in Florida when we should start to get real numbers about what the American people have decided and who will be the next President. This will be the biggest political night that many of us have ever experienced and it would be great to…
Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency. This is where there has seen an explosion in in-person early voting which the Republican governor was prevented by the courts from trying to impede. So far a colossal 6,391,021 have voted there with 5,603,359 of them voting in person. This represents more 70% of the total percent of…
The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement. What is clear is that Trump’s attempted smear effort in relation to Biden’s son hasn’t really taken off. The campaign development that could possibly end up as the “October surprise” is the failure to find the parents of 545 migrant children who have been detained…
Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…
Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020? At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%. Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%. It is…
So far during this campaign PB has spent a lot of time looking at the voting intention polls but this is the first header on what is arguably a better indicator, the leader ratings for Trump and Biden. The RCP chart shows the gap between the net ratings that Biden is enjoying on favourability compared with those that that Trump is getting. The latest average has Trump on 54.4% unfavourable and 43.1% favourable. This compares with Biden who is getting…
Last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to join Iain Martin of Reaction’s hour-long video chat with historian and Stanford university fellow Niall Ferguson. As ever with Ferguson it was an erudite and illuminating session, ranging across the presidential election, Trump’s four years, the Covid response, Scottish politics and China. One of his many riffs though struck me hard: is this presidential election about to be 1948 again? Trump is done according to everyone who is anyone in America, reported the…
That sleepy #englishbulldog pictured in the previous retweet, is none other than the Trafalgar Group’s mascot “Horatio” Named of course after the Hero of the battle of Trafalgar, Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson. Since we are a polling firm, he goes by “Ratio”. pic.twitter.com/Kj5PhmqheH — The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 8, 2020 I spent 30 minutes on the phone this morning with Robert Cahaly, the Head of The Trafalgar Group which PBers will recall as the pollster who called Michigan, Pennyslvania…