What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state
Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020?
At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%.
Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%.
It is Texas, of course, which is experiencing by far the highest levels of early voting activity of any state within the union. The latest numbers from Election Project have a colossal 52.8% early votes cast of total percent turnout from the last presidential election. That looks set to be well over 60% by the weekend.
The latest betting on Betfair on the outcome in the state gives Trump a 75% chance with Biden on 25% which I consider to be the best value bet of this election.
In my betting I cashed in nice profits on the WH2016 national spread betting markets when Biden was almost at his peak. Half of that has now gone on Biden in Texas.