Are YES voters more likely to turn out? With just two and a half weeks to go before the series of elections on May 5th there are polls galore at the moment. YouGov’s latest AV tracker, for the Sunday Times, is out and sees a sharp reversal on what the online pollster found on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of NO’s first election broadcast. On the face of it the YouGov finding is very different from what ComRes reported last…
And NO increases its lead on AV Tonight’s ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is out and shows that all three main parties have seen a decline in support since the last comparable poll in March. The shares are CON 35: LAB 39: LD 10: OTH 16 The ComRes phone polls are treated as a separate polling series from the phone surveys. We have not seen the detailed data yet but others have moved…
Or could it still have some of its potency? The above, I’m sure, is typical of leaflets going out from the yellows to those identified as non-Tories in hundreds of CON-LD encounters throughout England. It’s worked in the past and has helped Clegg’s party build its local government base. So how’s it going to resonate this time? Will the fact of the coalition mean that anti-Tory supporters will be much less likely to vote Lid Dem? Notice the branding above…
How possible is coalition government with elections on? It all seemed so easy last May. Two parties having come together to agree a coalition document over little more than a weekend, leaders joking in the garden of Number Ten and ministers sitting happily around the cabinet table. It looks a different ball game now. Disagreements between members of the two coalition parties have been more frequent and more public in the last month than at any time so far this…
Rob Ford looks at the possibilities In a recent post, Mike noted that the Conservatives may be pushing the immigration issue to defend themselves from defections to UKIP. We agree that UKIP pose a real threat to the established parties at this year’s local polls, but UKIP supporters are not merely grumpy old Tory right wingers. In a recent study with Matthew Goodwin (Nottingham) and David Cutts (Manchester), which can be found here I examined the UKIP electorate at the…
Ipsos-MORI MORI has concern about it dropping to a 9 year low On a day when the big political story has been Dave’s immigration speech and the attack upon it from Vince one of my favourite monthly polls is just out – the Ipsos-MORI issues index which has been asked in the same form for more than three decades. In the latest poll just 17% of those taking part said “race relations/immigration” – a drop of nine points since March…
It’s so easy to please when you are in opposition Some smart cookie has dug up this clip from April 2009 of Cameron getting rapturous applause from the Royal College of Nursing conference. His talk then of “pointless reorganisations” of the NHS that “then bring chaos” certainly got a great response delegates two years ago but then, like when Clegg made his pledge on student fees, they were in opposition. The world is so much different now they are in…
Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. The next informal PB get-together is for the fourth time at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. It’s on Monday – kick off is at 6pm. Earlier, at 4pm, a number of PBers are gathering at the Guildhall Gallery about ten minutes walk away where Marf, the site’s cartoonist, has an exhibition including a number of…