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A year on and the polling’s almost the same Every fortnight since the first coalition budget YouGov has been asking the same question in the same format “And who do you think is most to blame for the current spending cuts?” The response options have been the same: CON-LD coalition: Labour: Both: Neither: Don’t know. What’s been remarkable is how consistent the response pattern has been. Thus the latest figures are very similar to what respondees were saying a year…

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Could Iowa’s evangelicals unify behind him? With just thirteen days to go before the 2012 White House race kicks off with the Iowa caucuses there’s been a fair bit of activity in the betting markets following endorsements for Rick Santorum from two of the state’s leading evangelicals. Surveys in 2008 had 60% of all participants in the Republican caucuses in Iowa describing themselves as evangelical Christians and the big question this time has been whether this key grouping would unify…

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Thanks for all your ideas, suggestions and nominations for the PB Poster of the Year. The next step is for Peter the Punter, Sunil and myself to go through the thread and agree a short-list as well as the categories on which we will vote next week. Have a good night in the PB NightHawks Cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

The afternoon polling round-up On both sides of the Atlantic there’s been a glut of polls as media owners and pollsters get their latest findings published ahead of the holiday period. And the message in each country seems to be similar – that which looked very positive for Newt Gingrich and David Cameron only a few days ago now looks much less certain. Tucked away on page 14 of the printed edition of the Times, and not released to online…

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Step 1 – your chance to make your nominations Every year at this time, as PB regulars will know, we hold an election to determine the “PB Poster of the Year”. Quite simply which of those who have posted comments on the site do you think has added most to your understanding and and enjoyment during 2011. This year we are having a slightly different process. A short-listing committee consisting of Peter the Punter, Sunil Prasannan and myself will decide…

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Are there going to be any polls? According to Anthony Wells at UKPR there were going to be three polls tonight including the YouGov daily poll. Well so far we haven’t seen anything though there might be a Populus survey in the Times later. If there is anything then rest assured – it will be dissected by the PB NightHawks. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Is that behind Labour’s declining ICM share? The big polling story about the Lib Dems since the general election has been a big decline in its vote and a largish movement to LAB. Often the figures we see on this are exaggerated because the don’t knows are netted off. To really see what’s happening we need to look at all the responses as seen in the chart above from the latest Sunday Telegraph survey. As can be seen Clegg’s party…

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Will the odds on any of the outsiders move in? Whenever we discuss the fight for the Republican nomination we always seem to end up talking in absolute terms – who is best to fight Obama, who’s going to win, who has not got a chance, etc. That’s fine. But for serious gamblers with an eye to making money the question of who finally gets chosen in August is currently not that relevant. What we are interested in are the…

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