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Category: Coalition

David Herdson asks: Will HS2 ever get built?

David Herdson asks: Will HS2 ever get built?

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Wouldn’t the money be better spent elsewhere? The debate that’s recently taken place over the awarding of the next West Coast mainline franchise to FirstGroup refocuses the spotlight on the proposed HS2 line, which if built would be a very serious competitor to it.  That the franchise runs until 2026 – the date proposed for the opening of the first stage of HS2 – is presumably not coincidental. Will it be built though?  There’s a lot of opposition along the…

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Shifting to the right will lead to electoral oblivion for the Tories

Shifting to the right will lead to electoral oblivion for the Tories

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All the focus should be on the LD undecideds For me the most significant polling data that we’ve had since the 2010 general election was the 1,500 sized sample Ashcroft phone poll of Corby voters ahead of the Westminster by-election due to take place in November. This was in one of the seats that the Tories won in 2010 and which they have to hang onto and more if they have any hope winning a majority. The poll came out…

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Conservatives suffer worst competence loss of any government in 1st year – since 1945

Conservatives suffer worst competence loss of any government in 1st year – since 1945

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Academic Guest slot Ratings of Conservative party competence declined more than any government in its first year since 1945, research by Dr Jane Green (University of Manchester) and Dr Will Jennings (University of Southampton) reveals. The authors calculate an overall competence score based on public evaluations of parties on different policy issues. Using this new measure (named ‘macro-competence’), based on over 3,000 polls in Great Britain over 67 years, and comparing governments between 1945 and 2010, their analysis reveals that…

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First Corby by-election poll says Labour is 15 percent ahead

First Corby by-election poll says Labour is 15 percent ahead

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It’s CON 37% (-4.2): LAB 52% (+13.4) LD 7% (-7.5) Lord Ashcroft has published a poll on ConHome this morning suggesting that Labour is going to win back Corby – the seat lost to Louise Mensch at the general election. The shares are above showing the changes since the general election. If repeated in the election it would mean an 8.8% CON>LAB swing which is broadly what we are seeing with current national polling. Essentially the Tories are down a…

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London 2012 – Who should get the credit?

London 2012 – Who should get the credit?

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Ipsos-MORI More from the MORI poll The first part of the August MORI poll was released during the day and focused on public reaction the the Olympics. Yet to come are the MORI voting intention figures and also the firm’s latest leadership ratings. That’s due tomorrow morning at some stage. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Will Tory rebels oppose ANYTHING that Dave offers the LDs?

Will Tory rebels oppose ANYTHING that Dave offers the LDs?

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Is the struggle to retain the 20 seat boundary bonus doomed? It’s being reported by the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan that Cameron is working on a plan to offer the LDs a deal on state funding party funding as a new quid pro quo for getting the boundary changes through. Brogan writes: “…over the next year or so Mr Clegg will find a way to back the boundary review when it comes up for a vote in the Commons. In exchange,…

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What could a LAB win in Corby do to the political arithmetic?

What could a LAB win in Corby do to the political arithmetic?

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BBC A “rainbow coalition” would be less reliant on the SNP One of the key drivers behind the 2010 coalition was that a CON-LD pact was the only one that appeared feasible given the election outcome. All the talk of a “rainbow alliance” required bringing together all the non-Tory MPs and it was hard to see how that could be managed. Any one of the assorted parties could wield enormous power if it came to a confidence vote. The impact…

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