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Category: Boris

Is Boris on manoeuvres?

Is Boris on manoeuvres?

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Benedict Brogan has an article in today’s Telegraph headlined Boris is unstoppable, and now Murdoch wants him to lead the Tory party For me, there were two bits that stood out. The outbreak of speculation about his chances, or even his suitability, should worry Mr Cameron less than the reason for the sudden outbreak of Boris-mania: Conservative donors have had enough, and are lining up behind the London Mayor. In City terms, the money men are shorting the Tory leadership….

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What are the chances of Boris making an early return as an MP?

What are the chances of Boris making an early return as an MP?

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What are the chances of a Boris return to the Commons before or at the next general election? Less than 20% 20% – 34% 35% – 49% 50% – 64% 65% – 79% 80% plus      Could it be before or at the next general election? There’s been a huge amount written around the world in the past few days about the Tory Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. His riposte to Mitt Romney last week before 60,000 people in…

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Will protecting oldies’ perks stop the seepage to UKIP?

Will protecting oldies’ perks stop the seepage to UKIP?

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Is this why seniors are being favoured over the young? If the polls are to be believed the age segment which has shifted most to UKIP in recent months has been the oldies. Most days the News International survey by YouGov shows them supporting Farage’s party more than any other sector of the electorate – a trend that’s seen from just about all the pollsters. The oldies are the group which seems to have turned most against Dave in the…

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David Herdson on how Londoners used their 2nds prefs

David Herdson on how Londoners used their 2nds prefs

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What are the electoral lessons to be learned? The vote for London mayor is unusual in many ways, one of which is that because of the electronic counting system, all second preferences are identified and recorded. Last week, the full second preference breakdown for May’s vote was released, and is well worth analysing. Interestingly, most people who voted for Boris or Ken also cast a second preference despite the almost certain knowledge that their first choice would be in the…

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What are Boris’s chances of becoming Tory leader?

What are Boris’s chances of becoming Tory leader?

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Is he currently up to something? Looking right across the bookmakers and Betfair and there’s one clear favourite for the Tory leadership – someone who is not even qualified to stand. Ladbrokes and Bet365 make Boris a 4/1 shot, Hills have him at 9/2 while PaddyPower is offering 6/1. On Betfair the last price traded was 5.4/1. Yet the winner of two consecutive London mayoral elections does not meet the basic requirement of being an an MP and his second…

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Could Boris’s successor be another Johnson?

Could Boris’s successor be another Johnson?

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Is there any point in betting on the 2016 race? Both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes have now got markets up on the 2015 London mayoral race and there appears to have been a bit of activity with Labour’s Alan Johnson now second favourite with both – 6/1 with the former and 10/1 the latter. The interest in Alan Johnson stems from comments he made about how him running this time had been a possibility and that he might put his cap…

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What if the blues conclude that Dave is a loser?

What if the blues conclude that Dave is a loser?

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Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM? These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted. What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement? What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most…

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Now Opinium makes it 5 pollsters out of 5 for Boris

Now Opinium makes it 5 pollsters out of 5 for Boris

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But which one will be most accurate? There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium – the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%. Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In…

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