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Part I – The Senate The US Senate is the upper house of the United States Congress. Unlike the House of Representatives which is proportional by population, the Senate elects a flat 2 Senators per state (e.g. the most populous state California has 52 House members and 2 Senators, while the least populous Wyoming has 1 House member and 2 Senators) Control of the Senate is also important for the Supreme Court as it gets to sign off on appointments…

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Harris continues to sink with punters on Betfair, the polling indicates this election is a coin toss so that makes Harris a bit of value but if the race turns out to be tie then Trump wins. TSE

This has not been, for me, an enjoyable process: the polls and predictions have tilted more and more towards Trump with each week passing, and there is even more red on the charts this week. Apart from the Cook Political Report, who have not updated their Electoral College ratings for TWO MONTHS, everyone is predicting a Trump win, and the Senate leans very Republican too. It’s hard to see why. We’ve had numerous Trump events where he has looked –…

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PBers have probably worked out that I am no fan of Kemi Badenoch but yet I still voted for her in the Tory leadership contest because Robert Jenrick is her opponent. Jenrick’s dealings with Richard Desmond, the former publisher of august titles such as Horny Housewives, Mega Boobs, Posh Wives, Skinny & Wriggly, Big and Black, Barely Legal, and even more embarrassingly the Daily Express, is the main reason because I believe in integrity and nobody with such a record…

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But will it shift any/many votes? I have my doubts. You’d have to be on the left hand side of the Bell curve if you aren’t worried by a Trump presidency. Forget his fascist tendencies for a moment, his plans for tariffs would be a disaster not just for America but the world. Donald Trump remains the favourite on Betfair and the polls generally indicate he will be the new Grover Cleveland. TSE

While the polls are still 50-50, there are signs the betting markets are moving towards Trump.  I don’t have anything very useful to add to that, other than amazement that Harris is still in the game when consistently well over 60% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and under 30% think it’s on the right one.  This is quite the testimony to Trump’s negatives, and Harris’ basic likeability, whatever you think of her other qualities as…

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I love surreal poll questions like this. I am in the 12%. TSE

This is something that has been done many, many times before by lots of medical professionals, politicians, think tanks and other various people attached to the NHS in some way. We have had the insiders view, the outsiders view, the private healthcare view and on exceedingly rare occasions, patient views. How will this be any different? I guess it won’t, at least it won’t set out to be different for the sake of it. One of the first things I’d…

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