Tomorrow sees the first by-election of this parliament and it has the potential to be quite seismic if Reform win or to a lesser extent Labour hold on. One of the reasons I’ve not covered this by-election as much as I wanted to is that there’s been no real value in the markets, looking at the Reform vote share market at Ladbrokes there could be value in backing the 8/1 on Reform getting between 45% and 49.99%. Based on the…
Despite tipping him to lose his seat at 14/1 I feel very sorry for Pierre Poilievre, but for Donald Trump, Poilievre would have become Prime Minister of Canada today. Today should serve as a salutary lesson for anybody predicting the outcome of the next UK general election which could be over four years away, a lot can happen in a short space of time. TSE
But for a few thousand votes here and there Pierre Poilievre would have become Prime Minister but it is likely he ends up losing his seat such are the fine margins of politics. It is quite the remarkable turnaround considering the Conservatives led by 27% in the polls in January, like Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who led the Premier League for a record breaking 248 days in the 2022/23 season they blew it in the final stages. One of the hot…
TSE
Mark Carney must thank his lucky stars whilst Pierre Poilievre must have spent the last 6 months smashing every mirror in Canada. It was no coincidence that lead in Canada narrowed whilst Trump stopped talking about Canada becoming the 51st state. TSE
One of the reasons I rate Ipsos is their polling goes back to the 1970s which allows to contextualise current polling. Economic optimism is the lowest in the history of Ipsos really should worry Labour, I think the poor ratings of Rachel Reeves means Labour will get a large share of the blame but the actions of the Orange one in the White House could help Labour avoid the blame for the economic mess, this time it really did start…
1. Introduction “The New Leviathans” is a book by John Gray. It is not an easy read. It is overwritten and despite its short length it is too long, taking frequent digressions: so much so in fact it may be two books mashed into one or repurposed. But it does introduce the concept of “hyperliberalism”: a theoretical framework that unites “woke” and identity politics and academic liberalism under an umbrella term and provides a history. So let’s have a look….
If you’ve been backing the Liberals/laying the Conservatives in Canada then this revelation might make you very nervous given how this polling question has predicted Brexit and Trump victories. As noted above the French whale who made over $30 million on Trump winning last November did so asking this question. In the space of a few hours we’ve gone from discussing Pierre Poilievre losing his seat to him winning the most votes, James Kanagasooriam is somebody I respect a lot…