This time a fortnight ago Joe Biden was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and on course to lose the election but things have changed someone. I think the major difference is how Harris is campaigning to Biden (and most definitely different to Hillary Clinton) which brings states in to play that previously were not and gives Harris a much broader route to victory. Once Harris confirms her running mate I will look at the individual state markets where…
As I noted the other day I think Starmer is following the Thatcher/Cameron playbook and getting the difficult decisions done earlier in the parliament so he can reap the rewards later so this polling is no surrpise. TSE
This is not a good look for Donald Trump and confirms indirectly that Kamala Harris is an opponent to be feared. If Trump does lose this election the person who agreed to such an early debate with Biden will feel the ire of self confessed pussy grabber. If the debate(s) had taken place at the usual point in the election calendar after the debates and Biden had a similar poor performance there wouldn’t have been enough time to replace him….
Whilst it is only Tory members who have the final say in the Tory leadership it might be polling like this that influences Tory members with James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat being more popular than the rest of the field. Cleverly ticks quite a few boxes, Lt. Colonel Cleverly will get the blue rinse weak at the knees as they love a soldier, he backed Brexit, and because (in)competency was a major reason the Tories lost the election, Cleverly has…
Apart from the fans of Liz Truss (all three of them) the legacy forever associated with her premiership is crashing the economy. TSE
This analysis is essential for those betting on the presidential election, it underpins why the election is effectively a toss up and why right now Harris remains value. TSE
My expectation is that Harris will receive another boost in the polls after she picks her running mate and from the convention which will make anyone who didn’t jump on Kamala Harris odds at the start of last month feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles when Robert tipped her to win. Her chances of winning the election was as low as 3.2% this time last month. August is looking the month of crossover on the major political betting markets….
As I predicted earlier on this week Robert Jenrick has overtaken Kemi Badenoch as the favourite in the next Tory market. I expect the final two to be Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. I’ve said (and bet accordingly) that Badenoch is overrated & far too belligerent and is so far proving it. I don’t think the Guardian stories have damaged her that much but it hasn’t helped. I now think this election is the Cambridge educated lawyer’s election to lose. TSE