This feels like a genuine tipping point for the Tory party. Like David Lloyd George, Sunak could be his party’s last ever PM? This is the sort of polling that will cause panic and discipline to fall apart within the Tory party. That said Labour on 37% might start setting off some concerns at Labour HQ especially as Con + Reform equals 37%. TSE
One thing that has been noticed with recent polls is that there is shift away from Labour but what does that mean? If this polling shift was bad for Labour then it would mean Starmer’s ratings should start falling as well but they are improving (as well as Sunak’s falling). One of the best polling analysts on Twitter is the Beyond_Topline account and one theory they think is that the falling Labour share and Lib Dem increase is due to…
TSE
When it comes to Rishi Sunak it appears he will not be remembered for being the UK’s first ethnic minority Prime Minister, or the fact the he is richer than Croesus, or he likely led the Tories to one of their worst defeats in history. No it will be fleeing the D-Day 80th commemorations early. Now I take the view that it takes a few weeks for falls in personal approval ratings to translate in to falls in voting intention…
Like the various PPE scandals this story gives off the impression that the Tories are a bunch of spivs looking to make money through nefarious ways. Whilst the amount is quite low it just looks sleazy. If Craig Williams wanted to make money from political betting he should have followed my 20/1 tip in March that there would be a July election. TSE
I am struggling to see how Jeremy Hunt holds on to the Godalming & Ash seat where I the Lib Dems have been working hard to oust to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. As Chancellor I suspect Hunt will be focussed on national campaigning to the detriment of local campaigning (a bit like Chris Patten in 1992) and that’s bad for his chances even before we consider the issues the Tories face in the blue wall. Below are the odds…
The Post Office Scandal – Where Now? It would be a glorious apotheosis of the great big Post Office scandal if all the defendants stood trial together in a specially constructed cage, like those used for Mafia trials in Sicily – investigators, lawyers, consultants, accountants, Board members, civil servants, Ministers, the whole damned lot of them. Sadly, it ain’t gonna happen. It would not be very British, and in any case, there isn’t a cage or court room big enough. The numbers…
I would have thought the first poll showing Labour in the 30s would have an impact on the betting markets. One of the first things I learned visiting PB in the mid 2000s was a maxim by Sir Robert Worcester which was to ignore the lead but to focus on the share of the vote. I suspect why the betting market hasn’t moved is that appears to be an outlier, the Focaldata poll still has Labour in the 40s but…