I still think this is Robert Jenrick’s election to lose but James Cleverly remains a value bet in my view, I have found Tom Tugendhat’s campaign underwhelming and both Cleverly and Mel Stride could pick up the support that people thought would go to Tom Tugendhat. I am feel confident that my previous lays of Kemi Badenoch will prove profitable. TSE
At the 2020 election Trump won North Carolina by 1.34% so a poll showing a tie isn’t that out of kilter but receiving fewer than 50% of the vote in Ohio when he received 53.27% is again within a normal bit of statistical variation. I will need to see more reputable polling to back these polls up but if Trump is at risk of losing the 33 electoral college votes that North Carolina and Ohio gave him in 2020 then…
Last week I explained why I thought Donald Trump’s lead on the economy still made him the favourite to win in November however if that lead evaporates then I fear he is as doomed as a passenger flying with Air France on a Boeing jet. As ever this is just one poll, we need to see more polls to see if this is indeed a harbinger rather an outlier. Yesterday my thinking was that if Trump’s price went North of…
One thing that is very uncertain in this parliament is that when Labour become unpopular (as all governments do) where will their support go? It has the potential to splinter in several directions, to the Tories, Reform, the Lib Dems, in North Britain to the SNP, and my expectation a lot of that support could end up with the Greens. But the influx of the new Greens could see the Green support fracture. This analysis is skewed to an England…
I think we are close to the point where Donald Trump is value. Not picking Josh Shapiro appears to have not harmed Harris in Pennsylvania. TSE
PBers who were around for the 2020 US presidential election will remember that no pollster garnered as much ‘attention’ as Trafalgar with their quite frankly unbelievable polls which often showed Trump was on course for a landslide victory in the electoral college. So in 2024 it is quite interesting as the above tweet notes that this time Trafalgar have Trump barely ahead in the swing states. In Trafalagar’s defence their polls this time aren’t as out of line with other…
I admire Donald Trump Jr because it is some achievement by him to be the worst human being in history called Donald Trump. I think is further proof that Team Trump do not know how to combat Team Harris and Walz. TSE
It appears we have at least one debate scheduled for September and potentially three, as we saw in June debates can matter. If Trump performs like he did during last night’s press conference then Harris should be seen as the winner. I was reminded how poorly Harris performed in the 2020 Democratic Party debates and with the Insurrectionist-in-Chief going in with low expectations it may be that if he doesn’t soil himself on stage during the debates he might be…