politicalbetting.com

There is much unintentional black humour in the latest imbroglio involving the writer of Black Books. Humour yes, but oodles of hypocrisy, a great big dollop of dishonesty and sloping shoulder syndrome from the Met (not to mention the incompetence and failure to think through the consequences of their actions we have come to know and love), ambitious politicians spotting a cause (the “Jenrick Syndrome” ably deployed by Wes Streeting (I know, the surprise!) and, mirabile dictu, an answer to…

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The Guardian and others report Angela Rayner has admitted that she underpaid stamp duty on her £800,000 seaside flat, after coming under intense pressure to be more transparent about her property arrangements. The deputy prime minister has referred herself to the prime minister’s ethics adviser after confirming she will have to pay more of the property tax. She incorrectly paid the lower rate on the apartment in Hove, she said. Experts have said the bill could run to as much…

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If the public are right then punters might want to take the 8/13 Ladbrokes are, but the time value of money might not be attractive to some. TSE

I am a fan of Torsten Bell, whilst I do not agree with his politics, he was thoughtful during his stint at the Resolution Foundation so I am not surprised with this promotion to help assist with the next budget. Given the heavy emphasis Labour have made of Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor then in the short term I cannot see a man replacing her. If we do get a second Labour term (and anything is possible under…

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When will the Aberdeenshire hotelier’s second term end? The last few days the internet became very excited about Donald Trump absence and health. I am not reading too much into this, for example speculating on someone’s health based on an enhanced photo is like relying on a Scottish subsample, it is inherently unreliable. There are plenty of markets on when Trump’s second term will end/will he complete a full term, these are markets I am avoiding because I think it…

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During Iain Duncan Smith’s tenure as Tory leader the BBC pointed out the inaccuracies in his curriculum vitae was inaccurate and it helped damage him and on a cumulative basis helped end his leadership. Like Rachel Reeves and her CV issues I don’t think this will be a career ender on its own but other issues will. Any Tory MP looking to oust Kemi Badenoch have more ammunition. My expectation for exit being in 2026 hasn’t changed because of this…

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In two significant ways, Reform UK supporters, and that subset which knows how to hold a writing implement and thus become Reform UK voters, are like senior military officers. First, they only want to hear things that they already know to be true. Second, they assume that anything they don’t personally understand must be simple. Immigration, and particularly informal migration via channel crossings in small boats, has been successfully weaponised to such a degree that it is now perceived as…

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My expectation for 16 and 17 year olds will be much lower than the rest of the electorate but if this polling is close to the actual result at the next election then this is good news for Reform as Labour’s lead over Reform becomes a rounding error. As I predicted the party most damaged by this new party is the Greens. I suspect a lot of attention will be drawn to Nigel Farage having better ratings than Sir Keir…

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