With just 5 MPs elected in 2024, it’s impossible for Reform to win the next election. So we are told. We can list multiple events which were politically impossible which then happened anyway. In today’s politics, the impossible is the future possible. Reform UK have transformed themselves – from UKIP to the Brexit Party to Reform UK Ltd, and now to a non-profit owned by its growing number of members. It is led by a Teflon-coated populist who so many…
We all remember OGH’s 50/1 bet on Obama. Well, I’ve got another for you! 50/1 on Mark Carney to be next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Oh… sorry, no, the bookies are offering 1/50 on Carney. Bet £50 and win £1 if he is elected. Is he really such a foregone conclusion? I’ve not seen any polling of party members, but the last two polls of Liberal voters had him 54pp and 40pp up against Chrystia Freeland, his…
Since Donald Trump’s second inauguration things aren’t looking well for Ukraine and Brits realise the outcome of the war is key to our national interest which presents problems for Nigel Farage and Reform. Nigel Farage looks set to play the role of Orville the Duck to Donald Trump’s Keith Harris which I think will go down very badly with the public and coupled with yesterday’s news that ‘The former leader of Reform UK in Wales accepted bribes in exchange for…
With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election. I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform. TSE
TSE
I am intrigued to see if the interventions by the new American administration starts impacting election outcomes in other countries, such as Germany and Canada, we won’t have long to wait to see with the former. TSE
Whilst your own bio isn’t a CV it does blunt the Tory attacks on the likes of Reeves and Reynolds, it also reinforces the impression that both front benches are a seraglio of eunuchs. TSE
For those curious about the PB Prediction Competition, the full list of entries can be found in this spreadsheet. PB Prediction Competition 2025 – Entries Most of the questions won’t be settled until the end of the year, although we do have one which should be answered very soon: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200,…