I happen to agree with Mandelson and I don’t believe that the election will see party vote shares in line with what the polls are currently predicting. A big factor, as I have pointed out before, is that LAB’s poll lead is very much driven by those GE2019 CON voters who are now saying “don’t know”. I still think that Starmer will be the PM after the election but his majority (if indeed there is one) will be much smaller…
I’m less sure and have a small bet that he won’t be the nominee There are so many issues and court cases concerning Trump that it is very hard to monitor. One that we could see a resolution on quite soon is the Supreme Court decision in the Colorado case where it was argued that because of his involvement in the January 6th 2021 events Trump should be banned from the election. I’ve just got a feeling that the “Deep…
There is much betting interest on the date of the next general election. Might it be in May, or November? The one thing we do know is that it can’t be any later than January 2025, because that’s the deadline set by law. Of course, in theory, the law could be changed, although to do so would be a constitutional outrage barring some national emergency. Yet there is one part of the UK where this is happening right now, for…
Parents usually have two wishes for their children: that they should neither be a politician nor a lawyer. And for good reason. Politicians are awfully unpopular people, and now more than ever. Indeed, if you look at the approval/disapproval ratings of political leaders around the world, you struggle to find any with positive ratings. Indeed, outside countries where the population are… nervous… to record their views about the leadership (*cough* Russia and Iran *cough*), there seems be only two examples…
Is Rishi Sunak using a crystal ball and the dark arts to select his most propitious General Election date? Maybe. Or perhaps he is using careful polling and political analysis to plot a comeback-kid route victory? Then again, he could be playing the Mr. Micawber strategy – something will turn up. Surely? A few PBers have recently suggested that since he knows the game is up, Sunak is simply stringing out his Premiership to the maximum, to move himself as…
“Devolution will kill [Scottish] nationalism stone dead” – George Robertson, Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, 1995. As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival and I worry Labour are going to make the same mistake again. The latest polling in the tweets above shows great news for Labour and Unionism following the absolute clown show from the SNP over the last year yet whilst trust in the SNP leaders and SNP seem to have damaged…
The odds on Trump regaining the White House in November’s election have eased a bit following the decision by the jury in the Carroll court defamation case. The decision by the jury that Trump has to pay Carroll $84m could undermine his position with voters across the country and punters have reacted accordingly. To be facing an opponent who can be branded a rapist makes Biden’s re-election task easier although Trump is still the betting favourite. What I find extraordinary…