One of the main reasons the Conservatives were walloped senseless at last year’s election was down to their handling of the economy so they must be delighted that they now have a small lead over Labour on managing the economy. The one downside for the Tories is that this undoubtedly not down to them but the way Labour have handled the economy so far, so this lead could be taken away if Labour improve their economic credentials. TSE
If you’ve never watched the film Doctor Strangelove then you should rectify this immediately. TSE
One of the more interesting things emerging from the recent Reform surge is that there is a clear gender divide opening up. For the three big parties in terms of seats the gender spread is between two and four percentage points whereas Reform there’s a nine percentage points skew in the latest YouGov poll. In my experience, such as the Indyef where women were less likely to back independence than men, women are more cautious about major change and voting…
Ladbrokes have put up a market on a potential by election in Runcorn & Helsby following the local MP pleading guilty to connecting with a voter. I cannot see any value in this market. TSE
I am quite intrigued by the age split with a strong correlation with age and favourability/unfavourability towards Trump. I think Trump will be an overall hindrance to Nigel Farage, particularly if and when tariffs hit the pockets of British voters. TSE
The orange one will be back in the Oval Office today and Ladbrokes have a couple of betting markets related to his tenure. I do not expect Trump to be impeached and convicted during his second term because of the broad immunity the majority of SCOTUS have granted him. Secondly in language the the MAGA crowd would understand, the GOP are a bunch of beta cucks who would never try and convict Trump, primus inter pares is J.D. Vance who…
Ladbrokes have a market on the length of Trump’s speech today. In 2017 Trump delivered a 15 minute 1,433 word speech and he delivers a similar speech then the value is on the 14 to 16 minute market at 7/1 but if you expect him to ramble on and on then you might be interested in the 6/5 on 20 minutes or over. TSE
Whilst there is a strong incumbency bias in best PM polling it is notable when a PM doesn’t consistently lead in this metric but what I find notable in this polling that Kemi Badenoch is a rounding error away from being fourth in what normally has been a two horse race for decades. Being ahead of Sir Ed Dacey by a mere 1% must sting for Badenoch. The good news for her is the 44% who say they are undecided,…