Voting closed at 5pm in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick’s chances are near rock bottom (but he has been lower before) but I do think he remains a smidgen of value given the last YouGov poll had him losing to Badenoch by a mere 4%. The result will be announced at 11am on Saturday morning. TSE
With the White House race essentially being a coin toss the Betfair market appears to disagree but given the the news coming out regarding Polymarket raises eyebrows. I suspect there are sufficient safeguards in place to stop market manipulation on Betfair and with over £116 million matched on this Betfair market it seems a poor use of resources to waste money on the betting markets rather than spend the money in key battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. Perhaps one…
The early narrative about this budget could be sub-optimal for Labour. TSE
Since winning a stonking majority in July it’s not gone swimmingly for Sir Keir with several unforced errors and his ratings cratering but today represents a chance for a reset. Given the leaks so far I expect some eye catching things to be announced during the first Labour budget in fourteen years. A golden rule of budgets is those that are cheered on the day often fall apart within a few days. Regretfully there appear to be no betting markets…
The House The US House of Representatives has 435 members. Each state is allocated 1 House member initially and then the remaining House members are allocated proportionally. The whole House is elected every 2 years. After every decennial census, the House undergoes a reapportionment process, where the allocation of seats for each state is adjusted in line with population changes. Each state (with more than one seat) then redraws the boundaries of its districts. This process is left up to…
Part I – The Senate The US Senate is the upper house of the United States Congress. Unlike the House of Representatives which is proportional by population, the Senate elects a flat 2 Senators per state (e.g. the most populous state California has 52 House members and 2 Senators, while the least populous Wyoming has 1 House member and 2 Senators) Control of the Senate is also important for the Supreme Court as it gets to sign off on appointments…
Harris continues to sink with punters on Betfair, the polling indicates this election is a coin toss so that makes Harris a bit of value but if the race turns out to be tie then Trump wins. TSE
This has not been, for me, an enjoyable process: the polls and predictions have tilted more and more towards Trump with each week passing, and there is even more red on the charts this week. Apart from the Cook Political Report, who have not updated their Electoral College ratings for TWO MONTHS, everyone is predicting a Trump win, and the Senate leans very Republican too. It’s hard to see why. We’ve had numerous Trump events where he has looked –…