This morning I wrote a piece on the next Prime Minister betting market and I thought the value lay with somebody on the Labour side, but who? This is a market that may not realise a winner for around a decade or longer so things can change a lot as well as the time value of money ruining your returns, who in 1980 would predicted lowly backbencher John Major would succeed Margaret Thatcher? Right now I think this market and…
I maintain that Farage remains a lay in this market and the value lies with somebody on the Labour side who would replace Starmer before the next election. If he was contemplating resigning after the Hartlepool by election defeat then he might actually quit if things go sub-optimally during the rest of his premiership. TSE
Speak to a lot of Tories, particularly the activists, and they will tell you this is the worst government in history, if they are right then surely it must worry them that the Tories are now firmly in third place in pretty much every poll. The reason for the dire Tory position is a substantial movement of their 2024 vote to Reform, and in comparison Labour have only lost 8% of their 2024 vote to Reform in the latest YouGov…
Looking at the polling, which isn’t out of line with other polling, shows first past the post is lacking support due its inherent unfairness, winning a majority of 172 on a vote share of 33.7% is inequitable, like cash, first past the post feels like an anachronism in the modern way. I suspect Nigel Farage will point out the unfairness and why Reform might not do as well in terms of seats as the polls suggest, as we can see…
There are many reasons for not confidently predicting the outcome of the next election right now, I have mentioned them a few times on this website. For example there’s an awful long time to the next election, which could be nearly four and a half years away so a lot can change, first past the post can be cruel mistress and we could see utter anarchy with the results if three or four parties are polling in the early twenties/within…
My expectation was for the Democrats to win control of the House in the 2026 midterms but looking at that first tweet then I am not so sure. The second tweet shows how the Democrats could win by default. Once the reality of tariffs hits the Americam average voter then I expect Trump and the Republican party will be rather unpopular by November 2026. TSE
It is only a little over a week since the inauguration of Donald Trump as 47th President of the USA. He has had a busy time of it with a flurry of Executive Orders on a wide range of issues, in line with his agenda. He certainly wasted little time, and this instant impact is a sharp contrast to the lethargic start of the Starmer government in Blighty. Perhaps a 3 month transition has its merits. Historically Executive orders were…
TSE