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Category: Betting Call

Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

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LAB #GE2015 targets numbers 1 – 25 from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 With polls as they are this looks an easy task This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team. If this is all they won and…

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Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

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What are we to make of reports that he might? Partly because I’m writing regularly on the 2012 White House race for the Telegraph I’m being contacted a lot by Ron Paul supporters who believe that there man will be in a strong position at the Republican National Convention in Tampa at the end of August. First they are saying ignore the regular delegate counts put out by the media – these are only half the story. For over the…

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Is the Royal Wedding set to be a ratings flop?

Is the Royal Wedding set to be a ratings flop?

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What’s the best TV audience bet? Over the past 24 hours I’ve been betting quite heavily on the Bet365 market on the size of the BBC TV audience for the Royal Wedding on April 29th. The latest YouGov findings on the public’s view, featured in the chart above, suggest that the talk of massive audience might be over the top. That only 35% told the pollster that they would be watching on TV, exactly the same proportion as those saying…

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And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

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(Every year on PB Roger gives us his Oscar predictions and betting advice. Those who who’ve followed his analysis have generally come out as winners – let’s hope it’s the same this year – MS) Where are the awards going to go? A great year for British films which I hope can withstand the philistinism of this Tory government. Stjohn asked if I could suggest value bets so where two films are close I’ll suggest he takes a punt on…

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My 200-1 shot clears the way for a White House run

My 200-1 shot clears the way for a White House run

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PB Nov 14 2008 Is he the one to take on Palin – then Obama? In the week after Obama’s victory in November 2008 I placed a £50 bet at 200/1 with Ladbrokes against the then governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, winning the 2012 White House race. It seemed a long shot but during those difficult days for the Republicans after their defeat it appeared to me that there was one potential contender who had what it would take to…

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Can we nail the “EdM result was leaked” myth?

Can we nail the “EdM result was leaked” myth?

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Tom Harris Tweat Tom Harris is wrong to make this assertion As those who follow the political betting markets will be aware there was a massive turnaround in the betting on the Labour leadership race in the forty-eight hours before the result was announced at 4.45pm on Saturday September 25th. For several months David Miliband had been the hot odds on favourite until about 8pm on the Thursday evening before the results were announced. The betting then moved rapidly so…

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Is today the day you should buy the Tories again?

Is today the day you should buy the Tories again?

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Has YouGov done punters a favour? If there’s one thing that the declining Tory ratings, topped by the YouGov 2% lead, have done it has been to change the narrative. For what looked only two months ago like a foregone conclusion can now be reported as a real race again. The prospect of Brown’s Labour coming on top with most seats has shaken everything up and I wonder whether without it Cameron’s latest “most important speech of his career” would…

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Could this “official” projection make you a packet?

Could this “official” projection make you a packet?

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House of Commons Research paper Will the markets gravitate again towards a UNS view? The above is a chart that features in a recent Commons research paper based on what happens if there’s a uniform swing across all constituencies from 2005 election adjusted for the notional 2005 results because of the boundary changes. So taking last night’s ComRes poll split of 40-29-21 the rigid application of the UNS formula has the Tories still short of a majority even though the…

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