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I don’t expect Robert Jenrick to defect any time soon, my logic is based on the assumption despite Kemi Badenoch’s ratings the Tories are still going to be shellacked senseless in next May’s elections. When that happens I suspect the Tories will oust her and Robert Jenrick has a strong chance of becoming leader next summer, defecting to Reform will feel unappetising. I suspect this is political shithousery from Reform to destabilise Kemi Badenoch as she and her ratings are…

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These ratings should cheer up Kemi Badenoch but I would caution getting to excited as her ratings have gone from dire to mere appalling. Based on these ratings the Tory party is still on course to become the MySpace of political parties under her watch. A good metric on these types of question is how well or badly the leader is doing compared to their party, right now Badenoch is polling on parity with her party’s vote share in the…

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Betfair have opened a market on whether Donald Trump will run for the a third term in 2028. The rules of the bet are very clear but for the time being I will avoid this market, I do not have any confidence in Trump and the Republican party to observe the constitutional and democratic norms, see the day of infamy that was January 6th 2021, and how Trump has pardoned those violent insurrectionists. We do have this curious position where…

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For those people who are betting on Reform winning a majority at the next election (or indeed most) seats this FT reports brings sobering news. Nigel Farage has told donors he expects a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election, suggesting he does not believe he can sweep to power alone. One donor said that Farage had told them he expected to do a deal with the Tories, whether it…

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I am a fan of Senator Mark Kelly and his recent comments confirms my decision to back him as a long odds trading bet, you can still get 70s on him winning the presidency in 2028, which I think represents value. I tipped him at 100s in March, so we can see where the market is heading. TSE

The first tweet in this thread is where Labour are very vulnerable. If the perception is that the government is taking money from the workers to give to those on benefits then I expect that will be sub-optimal for the government. TSE

I am not sure it will help Nigel Farage’s messaging by taking in so many former Tories, as we can see the problems/retorts to the message in his tweet. TSE

TSE