Earlier on this year I thought abortion would be the key factor that would help the Dems retain the White House next month as it would drive their base to turnout and vote but the closer we get to the election it’s the economy, stupid, then immigration which favours Donald Trump. TSE
My concern is that even if Harris is tied or even slightly ahead then Trump wins the electoral college. TSE
I still think Harris remains value. TSE
On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted. But on the last available evidence Jenrick represents some value. TSE
The public were wrong about the Lib Dems after the fashion as David Cameron’s black widow strategy worked brilliantly a few months later whilst it took the Lib Dems nearly a decade to recover. There are absolutely no epistemological problems saying that UKIP have utterly faded. TSE
As a young Tory in London in the early 2000s this is eerily familiar. TSE
The Tories need to make a net gain of 205 seats at the next election to win a majority of 2. The chart above shows the challenge the new Tory leader faces. Even if they make the sort of net gains Tony Blair won in 1997 it would still likely place the Tories as the second largest party (it would put the Tories on fewer seats than Labour won under Neil Kinnock in 1992.) If Starmer can win a majority…
Removing bishops from the House of Lords is great step in stopping the UK being more like Iran (the other major nation that has unelected clergy in their parliament.) It is an amusing irony that 52% of voters in this poll that support the removal of our unelected religious rulers including a plurality of Tories. Given the widespread approval for removing the hereditaries then perhaps House of Lords reform might give Starmer a boost in the polls although that might…