My expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor and I think he’ll try and it keep within the family which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.,’s presidential chances. As we can see in the Tweet above there’s polling that’s pretty good for Donald Trump, Jr. so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election. TSE
It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and with Liz Truss he has struck gold. Her Lady Jane Greyesque tenure as PM was like Black Wednesday, something the opponents of the Tories will use for years to show the Tories are unfit to run a whelk stall let alone a government. The difference between then and now is that after his election defeat Sir John Major wasn’t popping up in the media blaming everything from…
Being a relentless optimist if Trump effectively ends NATO and we see the return to Smoot-Hawley then I suspect these figures will move sharply towards the EU. Whilst I don’t think that means rejoining the EU but I do think rejoining the Single Market and all that resultant growth will be very attractive to voters. TSE
One of the main reasons the Conservatives were walloped senseless at last year’s election was down to their handling of the economy so they must be delighted that they now have a small lead over Labour on managing the economy. The one downside for the Tories is that this undoubtedly not down to them but the way Labour have handled the economy so far, so this lead could be taken away if Labour improve their economic credentials. TSE
If you’ve never watched the film Doctor Strangelove then you should rectify this immediately. TSE
One of the more interesting things emerging from the recent Reform surge is that there is a clear gender divide opening up. For the three big parties in terms of seats the gender spread is between two and four percentage points whereas Reform there’s a nine percentage points skew in the latest YouGov poll. In my experience, such as the Indyef where women were less likely to back independence than men, women are more cautious about major change and voting…
Ladbrokes have put up a market on a potential by election in Runcorn & Helsby following the local MP pleading guilty to connecting with a voter. I cannot see any value in this market. TSE
I am quite intrigued by the age split with a strong correlation with age and favourability/unfavourability towards Trump. I think Trump will be an overall hindrance to Nigel Farage, particularly if and when tariffs hit the pockets of British voters. TSE