politicalbetting.com

Today is the first anniversary of Kemi Badenoch becoming Tory leader when she defeated the human colostomy bag that is Robert Jenrick and it doesn’t make good reading for her. The most striking number is that 12% of voters think she looks like a Prime Minister in waiting, which is lower than the Tory voting intention figure which means the Tory vote is soft. The only positive thing I can say about Kemi Badenoch is that she’s not Robert Jenrick,…

Read More Read More

Given that 40% of current Reform MPs are former Tory MPs and by my count 100% of current Reform MPs have been Tories in the past and every week seem hear about former Tory MPs defecting to Reform then I am not sure this strategy will be effective. As we can see in the image opponents of Reform are highlighting the number of former Tories who have defected to Reform. TSE

When it comes to foreign elections I have a golden rule which is don’t bet unless you speak the local language, so that limits me to betting on elections in France, Germany, Belgium, and English speaking nations like Canada, Australia, and America with a certain generosity of spirit, which is why I avoided betting on the election in the Netherlands. Congratulations to anybody who backed the D66 at 200/1 and 100/1, it is also a salutary lesson about why sometimes…

Read More Read More

The polling is utterly grim for Queen Elizabeth ii’s favourite child. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday

Is assuming the 2028 White House race be a free and fair election the sign of being a fucking idiot? A few weeks ago I met up with somebody whose views on political analysis and betting I utterly respect and whose predictions have a very high rate of being accurate. As our discussion turned to events over the pond I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a…

Read More Read More

The long term future of the monarchy is in doubt thanks to the young and Green voters. TSE I am currently on holiday until the weekend.

Only the very excitable or those that don’t understand polls would get excited by a single poll but if we start seeing consistent polls with one of the Lib Dems or Greens in second place and the Tories and Labour consistently polling fourth and fifth then it might be further proof that the century long duopoly is over. TSE

TSE