If you’ve been backing the Liberals/laying the Conservatives in Canada then this revelation might make you very nervous given how this polling question has predicted Brexit and Trump victories. As noted above the French whale who made over $30 million on Trump winning last November did so asking this question. In the space of a few hours we’ve gone from discussing Pierre Poilievre losing his seat to him winning the most votes, James Kanagasooriam is somebody I respect a lot…
If things turn out as the polls predict then on Monday the Canadian Liberal Party are going to experience the greatest Canadian victory since The Battle of Vimy Ridge. Based on the news reports I think there is stonking value in the 14/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Pierre Poilievre losing his seat. You can find the market here though I expect it will be another addition to my collection of excellent value losers. TSE
There are some PBers, who shall remain nameless, back in 2015, helped Andrea Jenkyns become a Tory MP, a decade later she is on course to become mayor of Greater Lincolnshire for Nigel Farage’s party and this is where a lot of focus will be on as it shows the direction of politics over the last decade. Ladbrokes have some markets up on the various mayoral races (including ones not in the screenshot) and based on these polls from YouGov…
These tweet shows how poorly Trump is doing in the polls, if these sort of numbers persist then assuming free and fair elections are held in 2028 then the current favourite on Betfair to win 2028 J.D. Vance will be damaged by these numbers by association. If you fancy tying up your money for nearly four years then laying Vance then this might be the strategy for you. TSE
Ladbrokes have a market up on will Reform have 10 or more MPs at the time the next election is called, the time value of money alone makes this a poor bet (and the fact the other side of the bet isn’t offered). With the Rupert Lowe legal action against Nigel Farage, Lee Anderson, and others, I wouldn’t be betting on the number of Reform MPs there will be at any point in this parliament, which has potentially over four…
TSE
Canada might turn out to be an example of Donald Trump damaging the chances of right wing parties across the world. Something Nigel Farage and to a lesser extent Kemi Badenoch may have to worry about. Although Sir Keir may also have that issue but he does have a get out of jail card that he is Prime Minister and has to live in the real world. I suspect if Ukraine is sold out by the appeaser and the beardy…
If you have any money resting in your account you might be contemplating betting on who will be the next Pope and bookies like Paddy Power are offering odds but I would caution against betting on these markets as this is the epitome of an insiders’ market. No matter how many times you have watched the film Conclave doesn’t make you an expert on papal elections. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the candidate most aligned with the late Pope…