As voters in Kingswood and Wellingborough go out today to vote if this MRP is anywhere near accurate then Labour are going to win these by-elections handsomely. Over on Betfair there is a market on how many seats the Tories will lose, the value is, apart from laying the Tories losing more than 400 seats which is an impossibility considering they only won 365 seats at the last election, could be backing the Tories to lose in the 250-299 and…
If punters are right then Donald Trump is going to become President again early next year and that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom. His dangerous comments about NATO last week place Europe in a perilous position and only modern day Tankies in the United Kingdom could defend him. So what if Donald Trump follows through on his words and damages NATO? I suspect Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will have to look at joining a replacement for…
Overnight the Dems won the special election from the GOP. Now a lot of this will be down to George Santos who was expelled from Congress for fraud and lying about his personal history. This is a seat that the Dems won in 2020 but lost in the midterms, given the poor polling for Biden this gain for the Dems seems like good news, as the Tweet above implies it fits a pattern of the Dems over performing the polls/the…
We have two by-elections this week in which the government are likely to get gubbed but the major focus has been on the Rochdale by-election which takes place at the end of the month. The Labour candidate has had support from the Labour party withdrawn due to his past comments on the events in the Middle East. It may seem rather quaint that a by-election in this country is being impacted because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people…
The i are reporting that Tory rebels are understood to be mooting an unlikely plan for Lord Cameron to replace Rishi Sunak as prime minister to bolster the party’s chances of winning the next general election. Sunak is bracing for a difficult week in the top job, with the Conservatives expected to lose two by-elections to Labour on Thursday and a gloomy economic update due to be published the same day. It has sparked discussion among some right-wing MPs of attempts to launch…
Sadly for Rishi Sunak perceptions around him are actively damaging for the Tory Party as this YouGov poll finds Rishi Sunak is seen as even less caring than the Conservative Party. Let that sink in, Sunak is seen less caring than the nasty party and the Tory plans to make the general election campaign presidential and focussed on Sunak might be as useful as a condom with holes in both ends. I am loathe to criticise people for making bets on politics…
Betfair have this market on whether the Joe Biden will be impeached before the election. What I like about this bet is that the terms are very clear For this bet to be a winner if doesn’t require a conviction in the Senate, now House couldn’t organise an impeachment against a cabinet secretary this month I suspect they will not be able to do so against Biden given the revelations this week, backing no in this market, which represents a…
Based on the most recent polling this bet feels like a steal. My expectation is that once the election campaign starts proper the more the public get to see Susan Hall the more the Tory share of the vote will crater. The change in the voting system should also focus the minds of the electorate, I think any risk of letting the Tories in will boost Khan’s vote. I am breaking one of my cardinal rules of betting which is…